Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 10% Seven-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 10% seven-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Ethereum
13 historical signal(s) detected for Ethereum; 10 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | 2025-10-03 | $3896.0630 | $4484.1804 | +15.10% | 115.10 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $3841.6737 | $3835.0072 | -0.17% | 114.90 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $3600.3638 | $3566.0499 | -0.95% | 113.80 |
| 2025-11-17 | 2025-11-24 | $3091.9050 | $2798.9131 | -9.48% | 103.02 |
| 2025-12-17 | 2025-12-24 | $2957.8602 | $2965.2188 | +0.25% | 103.27 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $2941.8833 | $3020.0157 | +2.66% | 106.02 |
| 2026-02-01 | 2026-02-08 | $2450.6635 | $2087.9866 | -14.80% | 90.33 |
| 2026-02-10 | 2026-02-17 | $2106.7856 | $1998.1760 | -5.16% | 85.67 |
| 2026-05-18 | 2026-05-25 | $2130.7492 | $2097.6583 | -1.55% | 84.34 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $1858.3640 | $1638.7504 | -11.82% | 74.37 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Ethereum · Read the full methodology