Transparent historical data
What Happens to Ethereum After a 1.5x Volume Spike?
Ethereum has recorded 12 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.31% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -41.5% to -36.6% | 2 |
| -36.6% to -31.7% | 0 |
| -31.7% to -26.8% | 1 |
| -26.8% to -22.0% | 1 |
| -22.0% to -17.1% | 1 |
| -17.1% to -12.2% | 0 |
| -12.2% to -7.3% | 1 |
| -7.3% to -2.4% | 2 |
| -2.4% to +2.5% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 13 | -0.96% | -0.94% | 46.2% | 4.28% | -7.68% |
| 3 days | 13 | -1.14% | -3.03% | 30.8% | 10.51% | -19.78% |
| 7 days | 12 | -3.31% | -4.89% | 33.3% | 11.31% | -35.39% |
| 14 days | 12 | -4.29% | -7.22% | 33.3% | 6.18% | -30.99% |
| 30 days | 10 | -15.24% | -17.20% | 20.0% | 2.48% | -41.52% |
| 90 days | 10 | -22.62% | -18.37% | 10.0% | 32.73% | -28.95% |
Historical occurrences
13 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | 1.97 | $2514.85 | +0.41% | -0.00% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | 1.53 | $2416.24 | +2.08% | -1.05% | +4.05% | +2.50% | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 3.95 | $2251.73 | +3.32% | +7.62% | +11.31% | +6.18% | — | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 1.60 | $1858.36 | -2.51% | -14.85% | -11.82% | -3.60% | -8.60% | +32.73% |
| 2026-05-05 | 1.66 | $2346.17 | +0.62% | -2.34% | -0.32% | -9.26% | -22.78% | -19.74% |
| 2026-04-08 | 1.52 | $2235.82 | -2.51% | +0.52% | +4.05% | +4.06% | +2.48% | -19.56% |
| 2026-03-17 | 1.80 | $2343.53 | -0.96% | -8.71% | -8.15% | -13.63% | +0.73% | -26.37% |
| 2026-01-30 | 1.79 | $2822.63 | -4.24% | -19.78% | -35.39% | -30.99% | -30.32% | -20.16% |
| 2026-01-20 | 2.06 | $3186.78 | -7.68% | -7.39% | -8.19% | -26.46% | -38.66% | -28.95% |
| 2026-01-14 | 1.75 | $3330.50 | +0.64% | -1.14% | -11.67% | -9.32% | -41.52% | -28.72% |
| 2025-11-05 | 1.84 | $3285.23 | +4.28% | +4.30% | +3.98% | -4.98% | -4.59% | -28.67% |
| 2025-10-15 | 1.63 | $4126.24 | -3.26% | -7.06% | -6.30% | -3.57% | -21.89% | -25.07% |
| 2025-10-11 | 2.60 | $3841.67 | -2.45% | +10.51% | -0.17% | +2.45% | -6.84% | -19.15% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +11.31%
- 2026-04-08: +4.05%
- 2026-08-31: +4.05%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -35.39%
- 2026-06-03: -11.82%
- 2026-01-14: -11.67%
How this study works
Daily volume is compared with the median of the preceding 30 complete observations.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.