Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 1.5x Volume Spike
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 1.5x volume spike, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Ethereum
13 historical signal(s) detected for Ethereum; 11 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (2 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $3841.6737 | $3835.0072 | -0.17% | 99.83 |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-11-12 | $3285.2318 | $3416.0715 | +3.98% | 103.80 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $3330.5044 | $2941.8833 | -11.67% | 91.69 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $2822.6338 | $1823.8053 | -35.39% | 59.24 |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-03-24 | $2343.5311 | $2152.4713 | -8.15% | 54.41 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $2235.8222 | $2326.4452 | +4.05% | 56.62 |
| 2026-05-05 | 2026-05-12 | $2346.1713 | $2338.5945 | -0.32% | 56.44 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $1858.3640 | $1638.7504 | -11.82% | 49.77 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $2251.7346 | $2506.3431 | +11.31% | 55.39 |
| 2026-08-31 | 2026-09-07 | $2416.2418 | $2514.0093 | +4.05% | 57.64 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Ethereum · Read the full methodology