Transparent historical data
What Happens to Dogecoin When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25?
Dogecoin has recorded 14 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.25% and 35.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -37.3% to -34.4% | 1 |
| -34.4% to -31.5% | 4 |
| -31.5% to -28.6% | 1 |
| -28.6% to -25.7% | 0 |
| -25.7% to -22.8% | 2 |
| -22.8% to -19.8% | 1 |
| -19.8% to -16.9% | 0 |
| -16.9% to -14.0% | 0 |
| -14.0% to -11.1% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 14 | -0.58% | 0.48% | 35.7% | 11.95% | -2.78% |
| 3 days | 14 | 0.41% | -0.39% | 57.1% | 10.33% | -11.03% |
| 7 days | 14 | -1.25% | -1.63% | 35.7% | 8.80% | -24.70% |
| 14 days | 14 | -7.21% | -7.94% | 14.3% | 6.04% | -20.47% |
| 30 days | 14 | -11.34% | -8.13% | 28.6% | 20.86% | -30.86% |
| 90 days | 11 | -30.44% | -26.66% | 0.0% | -11.10% | -37.31% |
Historical occurrences
14 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 25.00 | $0.07 | -0.19% | -1.62% | -0.73% | +0.28% | +16.47% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 25.00 | $0.07 | -1.46% | +0.23% | -2.19% | -0.63% | +20.86% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 22.00 | $0.07 | +3.46% | +0.58% | +0.25% | -2.23% | -3.20% | — |
| 2026-05-24 | 25.00 | $0.10 | -0.71% | -1.95% | -2.31% | -20.47% | -20.00% | -11.10% |
| 2026-05-19 | 25.00 | $0.10 | -1.73% | +0.78% | -2.53% | -3.57% | -17.98% | -33.58% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $0.12 | -1.49% | -11.03% | -24.70% | -20.30% | -19.58% | -11.59% |
| 2026-01-21 | 24.00 | $0.12 | +2.48% | +1.19% | +2.26% | -14.50% | -20.06% | -23.16% |
| 2026-01-10 | 25.00 | $0.14 | -0.45% | -2.95% | -1.77% | -11.00% | -30.86% | -34.17% |
| 2025-12-13 | 23.00 | $0.14 | +1.58% | -5.25% | -3.46% | -10.88% | +0.95% | -30.44% |
| 2025-12-06 | 23.00 | $0.14 | +0.15% | +2.20% | -1.87% | -5.27% | +7.44% | -32.63% |
| 2025-11-04 | 21.00 | $0.17 | -2.78% | -3.40% | +8.80% | -9.14% | -9.16% | -37.31% |
| 2025-10-22 | 25.00 | $0.19 | -2.27% | +1.74% | -0.38% | -16.40% | -23.31% | -33.50% |
| 2025-10-17 | 22.00 | $0.19 | -1.89% | +3.65% | +3.48% | -3.03% | -13.53% | -21.81% |
| 2025-10-12 | 24.00 | $0.19 | +11.95% | +10.33% | +2.29% | +6.04% | -1.88% | -23.96% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-04: +8.80%
- 2025-10-17: +3.48%
- 2025-10-12: +2.29%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -24.70%
- 2025-12-13: -3.46%
- 2026-05-19: -2.53%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.