Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 25, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Dogecoin
14 historical signal(s) detected for Dogecoin; 11 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025-10-19 | $0.1853 | $0.1896 | +2.29% | 102.29 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-29 | $0.1944 | $0.1936 | -0.38% | 101.90 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $0.1671 | $0.1818 | +8.80% | 110.86 |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-12-13 | $0.1395 | $0.1369 | -1.87% | 108.79 |
| 2025-12-13 | 2025-12-20 | $0.1369 | $0.1322 | -3.46% | 105.02 |
| 2026-01-10 | 2026-01-17 | $0.1409 | $0.1384 | -1.77% | 103.16 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $0.1240 | $0.1268 | +2.26% | 105.50 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $0.1178 | $0.0887 | -24.70% | 79.44 |
| 2026-05-19 | 2026-05-26 | $0.1047 | $0.1020 | -2.53% | 77.44 |
| 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-21 | $0.0719 | $0.0721 | +0.25% | 77.64 |
| 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-07 | $0.0706 | $0.0690 | -2.19% | 75.94 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Dogecoin · Read the full methodology