Transparent historical data
What Happens to Dogecoin When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20?
Dogecoin has recorded 12 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.14% and 25.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -23.0% to -19.2% | 6 |
| -19.2% to -15.5% | 0 |
| -15.5% to -11.7% | 0 |
| -11.7% to -7.9% | 0 |
| -7.9% to -4.2% | 1 |
| -4.2% to -0.4% | 1 |
| -0.4% to +3.3% | 2 |
| +3.3% to +7.1% | 0 |
| +7.1% to +10.8% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 12 | -1.44% | -0.65% | 16.7% | 7.94% | -3.72% |
| 3 days | 12 | -0.62% | -0.31% | 41.7% | 21.55% | -12.03% |
| 7 days | 12 | -2.14% | -3.79% | 25.0% | 24.54% | -24.70% |
| 14 days | 12 | -6.85% | -5.99% | 16.7% | 25.38% | -21.69% |
| 30 days | 12 | -13.23% | -9.33% | 33.3% | 10.84% | -22.97% |
| 90 days | 11 | -21.71% | -25.06% | 0.0% | -8.99% | -50.46% |
Historical occurrences
12 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 20.00 | $0.07 | -2.45% | -0.16% | +0.30% | -1.19% | -6.97% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 11.00 | $0.09 | -1.40% | -12.03% | -8.50% | -5.96% | -19.99% | -10.58% |
| 2026-03-20 | 11.00 | $0.09 | -0.19% | -3.29% | -1.96% | -3.89% | +0.46% | -8.99% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $0.12 | -1.49% | -11.03% | -24.70% | -20.30% | -19.58% | -11.59% |
| 2026-01-26 | 20.00 | $0.12 | +2.40% | +4.73% | -12.57% | -18.71% | -22.97% | -18.21% |
| 2026-01-22 | 20.00 | $0.13 | -1.57% | -1.07% | -1.19% | -18.05% | -20.66% | -25.06% |
| 2026-01-01 | 20.00 | $0.12 | +7.94% | +21.55% | +24.54% | +25.38% | -1.25% | -21.52% |
| 2025-12-26 | 20.00 | $0.12 | -1.25% | +0.19% | +2.62% | +14.90% | +1.70% | -21.71% |
| 2025-12-15 | 16.00 | $0.13 | -3.34% | -5.95% | -2.33% | -7.75% | +10.84% | -27.87% |
| 2025-12-07 | 20.00 | $0.14 | -0.89% | +5.94% | -0.47% | -5.60% | +8.63% | -34.22% |
| 2025-11-13 | 15.00 | $0.17 | -3.72% | -4.22% | -9.28% | -8.99% | -19.49% | -45.39% |
| 2025-11-08 | 20.00 | $0.18 | -1.80% | +1.58% | -11.93% | -21.69% | -22.64% | -50.46% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-01: +24.54%
- 2025-12-26: +2.62%
- 2026-07-08: +0.30%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -24.70%
- 2026-01-26: -12.57%
- 2025-11-08: -11.93%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.