Transparent historical data
What Happens to Dogecoin When Bitcoin Drops 5% in a Day?
Dogecoin has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -5.11% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -6.0% to -4.1% | 2 |
| -4.1% to -2.2% | 0 |
| -2.2% to -0.3% | 2 |
| -0.3% to +1.5% | 1 |
| +1.5% to +3.4% | 0 |
| +3.4% to +5.3% | 0 |
| +5.3% to +7.1% | 0 |
| +7.1% to +9.0% | 0 |
| +9.0% to +10.9% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | -1.44% | -0.33% | 33.3% | 10.88% | -5.95% |
| 3 days | 6 | -0.64% | -0.66% | 50.0% | 10.50% | -12.03% |
| 7 days | 6 | -5.11% | -5.85% | 33.3% | 5.84% | -24.70% |
| 14 days | 6 | 0.50% | -1.13% | 50.0% | 11.74% | -20.30% |
| 30 days | 6 | -10.66% | -10.93% | 16.7% | 2.91% | -19.99% |
| 90 days | 6 | -11.09% | -8.59% | 33.3% | 26.84% | -33.32% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -6.44 | $0.09 | -1.40% | -12.03% | -8.50% | -5.96% | -19.99% | -10.58% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.07 | $0.09 | +10.88% | +9.86% | +5.84% | +11.74% | +2.91% | +26.84% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $0.10 | +0.31% | +1.46% | -5.61% | +6.74% | -9.82% | +3.85% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $0.12 | -1.49% | -11.03% | -24.70% | -20.30% | -19.58% | -11.59% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $0.15 | -5.95% | -2.73% | +2.45% | -1.07% | -11.50% | -33.32% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $0.19 | -4.33% | +10.50% | -4.61% | +2.08% | -7.62% | -26.71% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +5.84%
- 2025-11-21: +2.45%
- 2025-10-11: -4.61%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -24.70%
- 2026-06-03: -8.50%
- 2026-02-01: -5.61%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.