Transparent historical data
What Happens to Dogecoin After a 2x Volume Spike?
Dogecoin has recorded 14 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.35% and 35.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -26.3% to -20.7% | 1 |
| -20.7% to -15.1% | 0 |
| -15.1% to -9.6% | 1 |
| -9.6% to -4.0% | 5 |
| -4.0% to +1.6% | 1 |
| +1.6% to +7.2% | 1 |
| +7.2% to +12.7% | 1 |
| +12.7% to +18.3% | 0 |
| +18.3% to +23.9% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 14 | 0.39% | 1.08% | 64.3% | 13.76% | -5.42% |
| 3 days | 14 | 3.84% | 2.81% | 71.4% | 16.07% | -8.37% |
| 7 days | 14 | -3.35% | -1.09% | 35.7% | 10.80% | -8.88% |
| 14 days | 12 | 4.56% | 2.16% | 66.7% | 11.74% | -11.92% |
| 30 days | 11 | -4.51% | -3.00% | 27.3% | 23.88% | -26.27% |
| 90 days | 11 | -13.68% | -10.80% | 36.4% | 26.84% | -36.20% |
Historical occurrences
14 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 2.26 | $0.09 | +1.30% | +0.39% | -5.44% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 2.35 | $0.09 | -3.44% | +3.47% | -5.62% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-21 | 3.10 | $0.08 | +13.76% | +16.07% | +10.80% | +9.15% | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | 2.11 | $0.08 | +0.48% | +5.93% | +5.50% | +2.41% | -4.51% | +7.78% |
| 2026-04-30 | 3.77 | $0.10 | +2.31% | +4.22% | +8.04% | +8.19% | -4.31% | -31.96% |
| 2026-04-17 | 2.55 | $0.10 | +0.23% | -6.25% | -2.10% | +7.30% | +10.15% | -25.41% |
| 2026-04-15 | 2.12 | $0.09 | +2.04% | +6.88% | +2.26% | +6.71% | +23.88% | -22.74% |
| 2026-03-17 | 2.05 | $0.10 | -2.13% | -8.37% | -8.09% | -11.92% | -7.73% | -13.68% |
| 2026-03-05 | 2.12 | $0.10 | -5.42% | -8.18% | -6.47% | -3.86% | -7.61% | -6.81% |
| 2026-02-16 | 2.11 | $0.10 | -1.34% | -3.43% | -8.88% | -10.02% | -2.10% | +6.23% |
| 2026-02-06 | 2.44 | $0.09 | +10.88% | +9.86% | +5.84% | +11.74% | +2.91% | +26.84% |
| 2026-02-01 | 2.14 | $0.10 | +0.31% | +1.46% | -5.61% | +6.74% | -9.82% | +3.85% |
| 2026-01-03 | 2.80 | $0.14 | +0.48% | +6.81% | -0.84% | -2.60% | -26.27% | -36.20% |
| 2025-10-11 | 2.62 | $0.19 | -4.33% | +10.50% | -4.61% | +2.08% | -7.62% | -26.71% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-21: +10.80%
- 2026-04-30: +8.04%
- 2026-02-06: +5.84%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-16: -8.88%
- 2026-03-17: -8.09%
- 2026-03-05: -6.47%
How this study works
Daily volume is compared with the median of the preceding 30 complete observations.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.