Transparent historical data
What Happens to Dogecoin After a 15% Seven-Day Drop?
Dogecoin has recorded 8 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 1.10% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -7.2% to -5.2% | 1 |
| -5.2% to -3.3% | 1 |
| -3.3% to -1.3% | 1 |
| -1.3% to +0.7% | 0 |
| +0.7% to +2.6% | 2 |
| +2.6% to +4.6% | 0 |
| +4.6% to +6.6% | 2 |
| +6.6% to +8.5% | 0 |
| +8.5% to +10.5% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 8 | 0.40% | 0.57% | 62.5% | 6.44% | -4.33% |
| 3 days | 8 | 1.32% | 1.57% | 62.5% | 10.50% | -7.22% |
| 7 days | 8 | 1.10% | 1.36% | 50.0% | 16.97% | -12.37% |
| 14 days | 8 | -1.12% | -2.05% | 50.0% | 11.05% | -14.50% |
| 30 days | 8 | -10.56% | -11.44% | 0.0% | -4.51% | -20.06% |
| 90 days | 8 | -24.93% | -18.31% | 37.5% | 7.78% | -42.59% |
Historical occurrences
8 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | -18.22 | $0.08 | +0.48% | +5.93% | +5.50% | +2.41% | -4.51% | +7.78% |
| 2026-02-04 | -16.39 | $0.11 | -1.78% | -7.22% | -12.37% | -4.31% | -11.30% | +3.86% |
| 2026-02-01 | -16.88 | $0.10 | +0.31% | +1.46% | -5.61% | +6.74% | -9.82% | +3.85% |
| 2026-01-21 | -16.68 | $0.12 | +2.48% | +1.19% | +2.26% | -14.50% | -20.06% | -23.16% |
| 2025-11-18 | -16.49 | $0.15 | +6.44% | -1.84% | -0.06% | -10.76% | -16.88% | -32.23% |
| 2025-11-04 | -16.60 | $0.17 | -2.78% | -3.40% | +8.80% | -9.14% | -9.16% | -37.31% |
| 2025-10-11 | -25.07 | $0.19 | -4.33% | +10.50% | -4.61% | +2.08% | -7.62% | -26.71% |
| 2025-09-26 | -19.75 | $0.22 | +3.75% | +5.95% | +16.97% | +11.05% | -12.20% | -42.59% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +16.97%
- 2025-11-04: +8.80%
- 2026-06-06: +5.50%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-04: -12.37%
- 2026-02-01: -5.61%
- 2025-10-11: -4.61%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -15%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.