Transparent historical data
What Happens to Dogecoin After a 10% One-Day Rise?
Dogecoin has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -6.39% and 0.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -7.7% to -6.5% | 1 |
| -6.5% to -5.3% | 0 |
| -5.3% to -4.1% | 0 |
| -4.1% to -2.9% | 0 |
| -2.9% to -1.6% | 1 |
| -1.6% to -0.4% | 0 |
| -0.4% to +0.8% | 3 |
| +0.8% to +2.0% | 0 |
| +2.0% to +3.2% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | 0.37% | -0.85% | 66.7% | 3.18% | -7.68% |
| 3 days | 6 | -1.83% | -1.61% | 33.3% | 6.81% | -9.04% |
| 7 days | 6 | -6.39% | -6.16% | 0.0% | -0.84% | -11.93% |
| 14 days | 6 | -4.98% | -7.51% | 16.7% | 2.49% | -21.69% |
| 30 days | 5 | -17.05% | -16.42% | 0.0% | -7.66% | -26.27% |
| 90 days | 5 | -32.39% | -21.55% | 40.0% | 9.69% | -50.46% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 13.76 | $0.09 | +0.47% | -1.60% | -6.88% | -7.35% | — | — |
| 2026-02-15 | 14.39 | $0.11 | -7.68% | -9.04% | -10.50% | -15.05% | -7.66% | +1.61% |
| 2026-02-07 | 10.88 | $0.10 | +0.26% | -2.06% | -0.88% | +2.49% | -8.46% | +9.69% |
| 2026-01-03 | 12.08 | $0.14 | +0.48% | +6.81% | -0.84% | -2.60% | -26.27% | -36.20% |
| 2025-11-08 | 10.88 | $0.18 | -1.80% | +1.58% | -11.93% | -21.69% | -22.64% | -50.46% |
| 2025-10-13 | 11.95 | $0.21 | +3.18% | -5.35% | -5.91% | -0.84% | -17.05% | -32.39% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-03: -0.84%
- 2026-02-07: -0.88%
- 2025-10-13: -5.91%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-11-08: -11.93%
- 2026-02-15: -10.50%
- 2026-08-22: -6.88%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.