Transparent historical data
What Happens to Dogecoin After a 1.5x Volume Spike?
Dogecoin has recorded 25 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.03% and 44.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -36.9% to -30.2% | 1 |
| -30.2% to -23.4% | 4 |
| -23.4% to -16.6% | 1 |
| -16.6% to -9.9% | 2 |
| -9.9% to -3.1% | 8 |
| -3.1% to +3.6% | 4 |
| +3.6% to +10.4% | 1 |
| +10.4% to +17.1% | 1 |
| +17.1% to +23.9% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 25 | 0.23% | 0.32% | 56.0% | 10.88% | -7.92% |
| 3 days | 25 | 1.46% | 2.43% | 56.0% | 22.61% | -8.37% |
| 7 days | 25 | -2.03% | -0.31% | 44.0% | 24.54% | -16.68% |
| 14 days | 24 | -1.56% | -0.29% | 41.7% | 25.38% | -14.79% |
| 30 days | 23 | -7.62% | -8.73% | 17.4% | 23.88% | -36.91% |
| 90 days | 23 | -22.74% | -19.32% | 17.4% | 26.84% | -39.63% |
Historical occurrences
25 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 2.35 | $0.09 | -3.44% | +3.47% | -5.62% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 1.83 | $0.07 | +7.27% | +22.61% | +16.91% | +8.95% | — | — |
| 2026-06-05 | 1.52 | $0.09 | -7.92% | -2.57% | -2.83% | -5.69% | -12.31% | -7.66% |
| 2026-05-15 | 1.82 | $0.12 | -1.77% | -5.58% | -8.53% | -13.74% | -23.84% | -39.63% |
| 2026-05-07 | 1.68 | $0.11 | -4.11% | -3.31% | +0.14% | -7.91% | -27.56% | -37.75% |
| 2026-05-05 | 1.88 | $0.11 | +4.36% | -2.00% | +1.00% | -4.89% | -17.03% | -35.74% |
| 2026-04-30 | 3.77 | $0.10 | +2.31% | +4.22% | +8.04% | +8.19% | -4.31% | -31.96% |
| 2026-04-20 | 1.61 | $0.09 | +2.35% | +2.80% | +6.64% | +16.21% | +10.53% | -22.11% |
| 2026-04-17 | 2.55 | $0.10 | +0.23% | -6.25% | -2.10% | +7.30% | +10.15% | -25.41% |
| 2026-04-15 | 2.12 | $0.09 | +2.04% | +6.88% | +2.26% | +6.71% | +23.88% | -22.74% |
| 2026-03-17 | 2.05 | $0.10 | -2.13% | -8.37% | -8.09% | -11.92% | -7.73% | -13.68% |
| 2026-03-14 | 1.72 | $0.10 | +0.72% | +7.12% | -2.03% | -6.26% | -5.39% | -10.53% |
| 2026-03-11 | 1.82 | $0.09 | -1.94% | +1.38% | +6.29% | +1.08% | -2.15% | -8.96% |
| 2026-03-05 | 2.12 | $0.10 | -5.42% | -8.18% | -6.47% | -3.86% | -7.61% | -6.81% |
| 2026-02-16 | 2.11 | $0.10 | -1.34% | -3.43% | -8.88% | -10.02% | -2.10% | +6.23% |
| 2026-02-06 | 2.44 | $0.09 | +10.88% | +9.86% | +5.84% | +11.74% | +2.91% | +26.84% |
| 2026-02-04 | 1.55 | $0.11 | -1.78% | -7.22% | -12.37% | -4.31% | -11.30% | +3.86% |
| 2026-02-01 | 2.14 | $0.10 | +0.31% | +1.46% | -5.61% | +6.74% | -9.82% | +3.85% |
| 2026-01-14 | 1.59 | $0.15 | -0.99% | -6.95% | -16.68% | -14.79% | -36.91% | -36.72% |
| 2026-01-05 | 1.98 | $0.15 | +1.25% | -2.41% | -7.81% | -14.34% | -29.31% | -38.30% |
| 2026-01-03 | 2.80 | $0.14 | +0.48% | +6.81% | -0.84% | -2.60% | -26.27% | -36.20% |
| 2026-01-01 | 1.93 | $0.12 | +7.94% | +21.55% | +24.54% | +25.38% | -1.25% | -21.52% |
| 2025-11-22 | 1.74 | $0.14 | +0.05% | +8.26% | +7.18% | -0.47% | -6.50% | -29.32% |
| 2025-11-05 | 1.72 | $0.16 | +2.91% | +10.17% | +5.92% | -0.52% | -9.25% | -33.39% |
| 2025-10-11 | 2.62 | $0.19 | -4.33% | +10.50% | -4.61% | +2.08% | -7.62% | -26.71% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-01: +24.54%
- 2026-08-20: +16.91%
- 2026-04-30: +8.04%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-14: -16.68%
- 2026-02-04: -12.37%
- 2026-02-16: -8.88%
How this study works
Daily volume is compared with the median of the preceding 30 complete observations.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.