Transparent historical data
What Happens to Chainlink When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25?
Chainlink has recorded 14 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.21% and 57.1% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -4.5% to -2.9% | 4 |
| -2.9% to -1.2% | 3 |
| -1.2% to +0.5% | 1 |
| +0.5% to +2.2% | 2 |
| +2.2% to +3.8% | 2 |
| +3.8% to +5.5% | 0 |
| +5.5% to +7.2% | 1 |
| +7.2% to +8.9% | 0 |
| +8.9% to +10.6% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 14 | -0.88% | 0.24% | 42.9% | 10.55% | -4.54% |
| 3 days | 14 | -0.24% | -0.28% | 50.0% | 11.07% | -14.77% |
| 7 days | 14 | 0.21% | -1.68% | 57.1% | 8.88% | -29.42% |
| 14 days | 14 | -6.82% | -6.62% | 28.6% | 16.58% | -22.61% |
| 30 days | 14 | -10.38% | -5.29% | 28.6% | 35.82% | -28.34% |
| 90 days | 11 | -24.67% | -19.26% | 9.1% | 25.56% | -34.89% |
Historical occurrences
14 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 25.00 | $8.18 | -0.44% | +0.06% | +1.35% | +16.58% | +35.82% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 25.00 | $8.45 | -3.37% | -0.87% | -3.12% | +5.10% | +35.60% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 22.00 | $7.88 | +5.80% | +5.75% | +8.88% | +6.23% | +9.93% | — |
| 2026-05-24 | 25.00 | $9.55 | -1.32% | -1.83% | -3.79% | -22.61% | -17.71% | +25.56% |
| 2026-05-19 | 25.00 | $9.60 | -1.67% | +1.45% | -1.12% | -5.79% | -15.79% | -2.26% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $11.64 | -3.72% | -14.77% | -29.42% | -19.42% | -18.58% | -21.69% |
| 2026-01-21 | 24.00 | $12.67 | +1.40% | +2.86% | +0.51% | -21.78% | -22.79% | -26.69% |
| 2026-01-10 | 25.00 | $13.64 | +3.31% | -0.54% | +4.47% | -4.48% | -28.34% | -34.41% |
| 2025-12-13 | 23.00 | $13.64 | +0.71% | -5.72% | -8.17% | -10.74% | +2.83% | -27.47% |
| 2025-12-06 | 23.00 | $13.59 | +2.37% | +1.15% | +0.35% | -7.85% | -0.93% | -27.43% |
| 2025-11-04 | 21.00 | $15.23 | -3.37% | -3.34% | +7.40% | -12.62% | -3.71% | -34.89% |
| 2025-10-22 | 25.00 | $17.61 | -2.31% | +1.57% | +1.28% | -16.43% | -26.59% | -24.67% |
| 2025-10-17 | 22.00 | $17.41 | -4.54% | -0.76% | +0.07% | -3.56% | -18.88% | -17.19% |
| 2025-10-12 | 24.00 | $17.21 | +10.55% | +11.07% | -2.25% | +4.69% | -4.96% | -20.75% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-07-14: +8.88%
- 2025-11-04: +7.40%
- 2026-01-10: +4.47%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -29.42%
- 2025-12-13: -8.17%
- 2026-05-24: -3.79%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.