Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 25, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Chainlink
14 historical signal(s) detected for Chainlink; 11 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025-10-19 | $17.2134 | $16.8254 | -2.25% | 97.75 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-29 | $17.6134 | $17.8387 | +1.28% | 99.00 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $15.2322 | $16.3589 | +7.40% | 106.32 |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-12-13 | $13.5933 | $13.6404 | +0.35% | 106.69 |
| 2025-12-13 | 2025-12-20 | $13.6404 | $12.5263 | -8.17% | 97.97 |
| 2026-01-10 | 2026-01-17 | $13.6424 | $14.2519 | +4.47% | 102.35 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $12.6694 | $12.7337 | +0.51% | 102.87 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $11.6356 | $8.2126 | -29.42% | 72.61 |
| 2026-05-19 | 2026-05-26 | $9.6003 | $9.4926 | -1.12% | 71.79 |
| 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-21 | $7.8813 | $8.5813 | +8.88% | 78.17 |
| 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-07 | $8.4481 | $8.1842 | -3.12% | 75.73 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Chainlink · Read the full methodology