Transparent historical data
What Happens to Chainlink When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20?
Chainlink has recorded 12 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -4.08% and 25.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -14.8% to -12.2% | 1 |
| -12.2% to -9.6% | 1 |
| -9.6% to -7.1% | 1 |
| -7.1% to -4.5% | 1 |
| -4.5% to -1.9% | 1 |
| -1.9% to +0.6% | 0 |
| +0.6% to +3.2% | 1 |
| +3.2% to +5.8% | 5 |
| +5.8% to +8.3% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 12 | -1.99% | -1.27% | 33.3% | 4.32% | -6.62% |
| 3 days | 12 | 2.36% | -1.21% | 58.3% | 8.32% | -14.77% |
| 7 days | 12 | -4.08% | -5.58% | 25.0% | 10.09% | -29.42% |
| 14 days | 12 | -10.48% | -7.32% | 25.0% | 18.18% | -23.99% |
| 30 days | 12 | -7.83% | -7.24% | 33.3% | 11.47% | -24.07% |
| 90 days | 11 | -22.78% | -21.96% | 9.1% | 35.32% | -48.04% |
Historical occurrences
12 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 20.00 | $7.86 | -2.89% | +1.28% | +6.06% | +10.03% | +4.10% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 11.00 | $8.36 | -0.44% | -12.00% | -6.34% | -1.14% | -7.49% | +35.32% |
| 2026-03-20 | 11.00 | $9.77 | -6.62% | -2.26% | -1.20% | -11.54% | -4.95% | -17.24% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $11.64 | -3.72% | -14.77% | -29.42% | -19.42% | -18.58% | -21.69% |
| 2026-01-26 | 20.00 | $12.10 | +4.32% | +4.21% | -18.05% | -19.21% | -24.06% | -22.78% |
| 2026-01-22 | 20.00 | $12.85 | +0.94% | +4.66% | -1.84% | -23.99% | -24.07% | -26.84% |
| 2026-01-01 | 20.00 | $12.20 | +3.49% | +8.32% | +10.09% | +18.18% | -8.17% | -28.12% |
| 2025-12-26 | 20.00 | $12.06 | +0.95% | +3.44% | +4.68% | +9.59% | +11.47% | -15.99% |
| 2025-12-15 | 16.00 | $13.29 | -3.21% | -7.77% | -6.33% | -6.11% | +8.38% | -22.61% |
| 2025-12-07 | 20.00 | $13.92 | -1.98% | +3.60% | -1.28% | -9.81% | +0.07% | -30.16% |
| 2025-11-13 | 15.00 | $15.14 | -4.03% | -6.72% | -10.75% | -11.15% | -9.91% | -43.38% |
| 2025-11-08 | 20.00 | $15.80 | -1.99% | +3.51% | -12.57% | -23.33% | -13.70% | -48.04% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-01: +10.09%
- 2026-07-08: +6.06%
- 2025-12-26: +4.68%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -29.42%
- 2026-01-26: -18.05%
- 2025-11-08: -12.57%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.