Transparent historical data
What Happens to Chainlink When Bitcoin Rises 5% in a Day?
Chainlink has recorded 7 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 1.45% and 57.1% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -12.3% to -9.9% | 2 |
| -9.9% to -7.6% | 0 |
| -7.6% to -5.2% | 1 |
| -5.2% to -2.9% | 0 |
| -2.9% to -0.5% | 0 |
| -0.5% to +1.8% | 0 |
| +1.8% to +4.2% | 0 |
| +4.2% to +6.6% | 1 |
| +6.6% to +8.9% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
7 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $11.83 | -1.70% | +11.87% | -3.09% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $10.55 | +1.34% | +10.44% | +10.17% | +5.33% | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $9.38 | -3.67% | +2.34% | -0.95% | -0.57% | +8.91% | -14.77% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $9.87 | -0.10% | +2.88% | -8.79% | +0.06% | -12.30% | -15.29% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $9.73 | +0.78% | -2.66% | +1.45% | -7.47% | -12.08% | -3.66% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $9.13 | +2.81% | -3.16% | +6.47% | +6.78% | +4.36% | +7.87% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $13.49 | +8.71% | +0.75% | +6.85% | -4.21% | -6.43% | -28.54% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +10.17%
- 2025-12-03: +6.85%
- 2026-02-07: +6.47%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-03-05: -8.79%
- 2026-09-04: -3.09%
- 2026-04-14: -0.95%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.