Transparent historical data
What Happens to Chainlink When Bitcoin Drops 5% in a Day?
Chainlink has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -5.28% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -14.8% to -11.0% | 2 |
| -11.0% to -7.3% | 0 |
| -7.3% to -3.5% | 1 |
| -3.5% to +0.3% | 1 |
| +0.3% to +4.0% | 0 |
| +4.0% to +7.8% | 0 |
| +7.8% to +11.5% | 0 |
| +11.5% to +15.3% | 1 |
| +15.3% to +19.0% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | -2.26% | -0.62% | 16.7% | 11.22% | -6.28% |
| 3 days | 6 | -3.50% | -0.03% | 33.3% | 19.05% | -14.77% |
| 7 days | 6 | -5.28% | -5.24% | 33.3% | 14.16% | -29.42% |
| 14 days | 6 | 0.99% | 1.43% | 50.0% | 19.10% | -19.42% |
| 30 days | 6 | -6.95% | -3.32% | 16.7% | 23.70% | -18.58% |
| 90 days | 6 | -16.70% | -4.07% | 33.3% | 35.32% | -24.23% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -6.44 | $8.36 | -0.44% | -12.00% | -6.34% | -1.14% | -7.49% | +35.32% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.07 | $8.21 | +11.22% | +19.05% | +14.16% | +19.10% | +23.70% | +21.72% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $10.30 | -3.73% | -3.80% | -8.83% | -3.30% | -6.40% | -11.72% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $11.64 | -3.72% | -14.77% | -29.42% | -19.42% | -18.58% | -21.69% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $12.93 | -6.28% | -3.20% | +3.20% | +10.22% | -2.93% | -24.23% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $17.35 | -0.79% | +14.57% | -4.21% | +3.11% | -8.23% | -23.82% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +14.16%
- 2025-11-21: +3.20%
- 2025-10-11: -4.21%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -29.42%
- 2026-02-01: -8.83%
- 2026-06-03: -6.34%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.