Transparent historical data
What Happens to Chainlink After Negative Funding?
Chainlink has recorded 79 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.30% and 36.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -41.4% to -32.5% | 3 |
| -32.5% to -23.6% | 7 |
| -23.6% to -14.7% | 12 |
| -14.7% to -5.8% | 12 |
| -5.8% to +3.2% | 22 |
| +3.2% to +12.1% | 6 |
| +12.1% to +21.0% | 9 |
| +21.0% to +29.9% | 0 |
| +29.9% to +38.8% | 3 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 81 | -0.83% | -1.16% | 40.7% | 6.76% | -15.90% |
| 3 days | 80 | -1.38% | -0.86% | 41.2% | 14.57% | -16.69% |
| 7 days | 79 | -2.30% | -2.33% | 36.7% | 21.89% | -22.18% |
| 14 days | 77 | -3.40% | -4.51% | 42.9% | 18.71% | -36.67% |
| 30 days | 74 | -4.53% | -5.46% | 35.1% | 38.79% | -41.39% |
| 90 days | 64 | -20.29% | -16.74% | 15.6% | 65.61% | -49.25% |
Historical occurrences
81 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | -0.00 | $11.51 | -5.50% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | -0.00 | $11.80 | -2.87% | -2.57% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-08 | -0.00 | $12.74 | -1.83% | -10.02% | -9.64% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | -0.00 | $11.83 | -1.70% | +11.87% | -3.09% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-28 | -0.00 | $11.92 | -4.12% | -6.55% | -0.76% | -3.83% | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | -0.00 | $10.55 | +1.34% | +10.44% | +10.17% | +5.33% | — | — |
| 2026-08-18 | -0.00 | $9.54 | -0.07% | +12.09% | +21.89% | +18.71% | — | — |
| 2026-07-31 | -0.00 | $8.45 | -3.37% | -0.87% | -3.12% | +5.10% | +35.60% | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -0.00 | $8.37 | +0.82% | +0.91% | -2.30% | -0.98% | +38.79% | — |
| 2026-07-25 | -0.00 | $8.33 | +0.52% | +0.45% | -2.05% | -1.84% | +38.46% | — |
| 2026-07-19 | -0.00 | $8.34 | +0.41% | +3.66% | +0.40% | -3.40% | +14.27% | — |
| 2026-07-17 | -0.00 | $8.33 | -1.01% | +0.53% | +1.57% | +1.36% | +13.53% | — |
| 2026-07-12 | -0.00 | $7.91 | +1.03% | +5.41% | +5.49% | +5.91% | +4.80% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | -0.00 | $7.86 | -2.89% | +1.28% | +6.06% | +10.03% | +4.10% | — |
| 2026-06-28 | -0.00 | $7.29 | -0.43% | -1.32% | +9.79% | +8.56% | +14.89% | — |
| 2026-06-23 | -0.00 | $7.86 | -2.97% | -7.89% | -6.27% | +1.98% | +9.75% | — |
| 2026-06-20 | -0.00 | $7.94 | +0.58% | -0.96% | -7.47% | +0.41% | +5.59% | — |
| 2026-06-18 | -0.01 | $8.08 | -0.98% | -1.27% | -8.28% | -9.09% | +2.05% | +34.60% |
| 2026-06-14 | -0.00 | $7.98 | +2.41% | +3.64% | +0.03% | -8.67% | -1.23% | +44.70% |
| 2026-06-09 | -0.00 | $7.99 | -1.99% | -1.45% | +3.77% | -1.67% | -4.48% | +65.61% |
| 2026-06-01 | -0.00 | $9.14 | -1.00% | -8.85% | -13.44% | -10.55% | -21.29% | +25.39% |
| 2026-05-27 | -0.01 | $9.38 | -2.69% | -3.87% | -10.79% | -16.45% | -22.79% | +23.95% |
| 2026-05-23 | -0.01 | $9.41 | +1.49% | +0.86% | -4.22% | -21.78% | -17.37% | +13.57% |
| 2026-05-13 | -0.01 | $10.28 | -0.66% | -2.08% | -8.18% | -8.79% | -23.38% | -19.36% |
| 2026-05-02 | -0.01 | $9.09 | +0.87% | +2.84% | +13.78% | +10.70% | +0.46% | -7.11% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-18: +21.89%
- 2026-02-11: +16.62%
- 2026-05-02: +13.78%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-28: -22.18%
- 2026-01-31: -18.46%
- 2025-10-29: -17.49%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is below 0%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.