Transparent historical data
What Happens to Chainlink After Funding Rises to +0.01%?
Chainlink has recorded 63 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.33% and 41.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -29.4% to -24.1% | 1 |
| -24.1% to -18.8% | 2 |
| -18.8% to -13.5% | 4 |
| -13.5% to -8.1% | 13 |
| -8.1% to -2.8% | 6 |
| -2.8% to +2.5% | 17 |
| +2.5% to +7.8% | 13 |
| +7.8% to +13.2% | 5 |
| +13.2% to +18.5% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 63 | -0.32% | 0.36% | 47.6% | 10.69% | -5.04% |
| 3 days | 63 | -0.26% | -0.88% | 49.2% | 25.85% | -23.93% |
| 7 days | 63 | -1.33% | -2.14% | 41.3% | 18.48% | -29.42% |
| 14 days | 63 | -2.45% | -2.34% | 42.9% | 46.58% | -32.68% |
| 30 days | 61 | -6.08% | -3.36% | 34.4% | 61.79% | -32.73% |
| 90 days | 52 | -20.27% | -18.83% | 7.7% | 40.75% | -45.25% |
Historical occurrences
63 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | 0.01 | $11.32 | -0.79% | +4.54% | +12.58% | +1.73% | — | — |
| 2026-08-19 | 0.01 | $9.53 | +10.69% | +25.85% | +18.48% | +17.85% | — | — |
| 2026-08-10 | 0.01 | $8.18 | +1.33% | +5.89% | +14.69% | +41.05% | +52.91% | — |
| 2026-08-08 | 0.01 | $8.18 | +1.46% | +1.33% | +9.57% | +46.58% | +61.79% | — |
| 2026-07-29 | 0.01 | $8.44 | -1.38% | -3.28% | -3.52% | +3.91% | +41.26% | — |
| 2026-07-27 | 0.01 | $8.82 | -5.04% | -5.59% | -5.02% | -7.21% | +28.04% | — |
| 2026-07-21 | 0.01 | $8.58 | +0.80% | -1.35% | -2.44% | -4.68% | +22.91% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 0.01 | $7.88 | +5.80% | +5.75% | +8.88% | +6.23% | +9.93% | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 0.01 | $7.73 | +3.02% | +3.40% | +7.83% | +9.52% | +7.40% | — |
| 2026-07-02 | 0.01 | $7.35 | +5.28% | +8.85% | +3.88% | +16.12% | +11.07% | — |
| 2026-06-21 | 0.01 | $7.98 | -2.58% | -4.46% | -8.70% | +0.23% | +7.51% | — |
| 2026-06-15 | 0.01 | $8.17 | +1.50% | -1.07% | -4.84% | -11.21% | +2.04% | +40.75% |
| 2026-05-28 | 0.01 | $9.12 | -1.42% | +0.72% | -8.73% | -17.15% | -19.52% | +23.73% |
| 2026-05-18 | 0.01 | $9.56 | +0.40% | +0.65% | -1.43% | -4.45% | -13.52% | -1.05% |
| 2026-05-13 | 0.01 | $10.28 | -0.66% | -2.08% | -8.18% | -8.79% | -23.38% | -19.36% |
| 2026-05-03 | 0.01 | $9.17 | -0.56% | +6.46% | +13.09% | +5.90% | -1.41% | -11.01% |
| 2026-04-28 | 0.01 | $9.32 | -0.88% | -2.39% | +0.32% | +13.49% | -2.14% | -5.43% |
| 2026-04-22 | 0.01 | $9.40 | -1.09% | -0.26% | -1.67% | +3.90% | +3.62% | -8.70% |
| 2026-04-16 | 0.01 | $9.27 | +3.57% | +0.21% | +0.33% | -1.66% | +8.65% | -10.01% |
| 2026-04-14 | 0.01 | $9.38 | -3.67% | +2.34% | -0.95% | -0.57% | +8.91% | -14.77% |
| 2026-04-12 | 0.01 | $9.07 | -3.70% | -0.39% | +2.39% | +3.05% | +16.68% | -12.20% |
| 2026-04-05 | 0.01 | $8.70 | +2.30% | +7.22% | +4.26% | +6.75% | +7.54% | -8.39% |
| 2026-03-30 | 0.01 | $8.41 | +2.45% | +6.30% | +5.77% | +3.82% | +9.86% | -13.37% |
| 2026-03-25 | 0.01 | $9.96 | +1.78% | -14.04% | -11.91% | -6.32% | -6.08% | -21.05% |
| 2026-03-23 | 0.01 | $9.55 | +0.45% | +6.13% | -11.89% | -6.81% | -1.56% | -16.40% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-19: +18.48%
- 2026-08-10: +14.69%
- 2026-05-03: +13.09%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -29.42%
- 2026-01-28: -22.18%
- 2025-10-09: -20.19%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is at or above 0.01%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.