Transparent historical data
What Happens to Chainlink After Funding Falls to -0.01%?
Chainlink has recorded 22 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.32% and 31.8% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -16.5% to -13.2% | 1 |
| -13.2% to -9.9% | 4 |
| -9.9% to -6.6% | 2 |
| -6.6% to -3.3% | 4 |
| -3.3% to -0.1% | 4 |
| -0.1% to +3.2% | 4 |
| +3.2% to +6.5% | 2 |
| +6.5% to +9.8% | 0 |
| +9.8% to +13.1% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 22 | -2.40% | -2.46% | 31.8% | 6.76% | -13.45% |
| 3 days | 22 | -0.96% | -1.89% | 45.5% | 14.57% | -20.53% |
| 7 days | 22 | -3.32% | -3.58% | 31.8% | 13.09% | -16.48% |
| 14 days | 22 | -5.79% | -6.47% | 36.4% | 7.53% | -21.95% |
| 30 days | 22 | -7.96% | -7.85% | 22.7% | 16.91% | -32.57% |
| 90 days | 22 | -23.50% | -23.72% | 0.0% | -6.95% | -45.38% |
Historical occurrences
22 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | -0.02 | $9.17 | -0.56% | +6.46% | +13.09% | +5.90% | -1.41% | -11.01% |
| 2026-04-23 | -0.01 | $9.30 | +0.58% | +0.53% | -1.98% | +7.53% | +1.24% | -6.95% |
| 2026-04-12 | -0.02 | $9.07 | -3.70% | -0.39% | +2.39% | +3.05% | +16.68% | -12.20% |
| 2026-04-09 | -0.01 | $8.85 | +1.09% | +2.45% | +4.68% | +5.03% | +16.91% | -11.18% |
| 2026-04-02 | -0.01 | $8.94 | -3.37% | -2.74% | -1.02% | +3.61% | +1.70% | -19.59% |
| 2026-03-27 | -0.01 | $9.65 | -11.34% | -12.84% | -10.47% | -7.29% | -3.18% | -23.17% |
| 2026-03-18 | -0.01 | $10.40 | -4.97% | -12.26% | -4.25% | -15.65% | -7.70% | -20.22% |
| 2026-03-14 | -0.01 | $9.63 | +6.76% | +6.54% | -5.30% | -11.16% | -9.34% | -18.22% |
| 2026-03-05 | -0.01 | $9.87 | -0.10% | +2.88% | -8.79% | +0.06% | -12.30% | -15.29% |
| 2026-02-02 | -0.01 | $9.92 | +2.64% | -1.54% | -1.42% | -3.33% | -2.71% | -7.50% |
| 2026-01-21 | -0.01 | $12.67 | +1.40% | +2.86% | +0.51% | -21.78% | -22.79% | -26.69% |
| 2025-12-18 | -0.01 | $12.26 | -2.63% | +2.41% | +0.11% | -0.45% | +16.29% | -15.16% |
| 2025-12-10 | -0.02 | $14.42 | -2.17% | -5.38% | -10.35% | -14.02% | -8.31% | -33.27% |
| 2025-12-06 | -0.02 | $13.59 | +2.37% | +1.15% | +0.35% | -7.85% | -0.93% | -27.43% |
| 2025-12-01 | -0.01 | $12.97 | -6.93% | +13.04% | +5.12% | +2.41% | -4.38% | -26.98% |
| 2025-11-13 | -0.02 | $15.14 | -4.03% | -6.72% | -10.75% | -11.15% | -9.91% | -43.38% |
| 2025-11-03 | -0.02 | $17.60 | -13.45% | -14.01% | -9.52% | -21.95% | -23.33% | -41.46% |
| 2025-10-30 | -0.01 | $18.12 | -7.34% | -5.46% | -16.48% | -16.45% | -27.53% | -29.73% |
| 2025-10-21 | -0.01 | $18.66 | -5.60% | -6.62% | -2.42% | -18.36% | -27.57% | -26.99% |
| 2025-10-11 | -0.03 | $17.35 | -0.79% | +14.57% | -4.21% | +3.11% | -8.23% | -23.82% |
| 2025-10-08 | -0.02 | $21.83 | +3.64% | -20.53% | -12.43% | -19.33% | -32.57% | -36.22% |
| 2025-09-22 | -0.02 | $22.98 | -5.69% | -5.94% | -5.67% | -4.29% | -23.35% | -45.38% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-05-03: +13.09%
- 2025-12-01: +5.12%
- 2026-04-09: +4.68%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-30: -16.48%
- 2025-10-08: -12.43%
- 2025-11-13: -10.75%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is at or below -0.01%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.