Transparent historical data
What Happens to Chainlink After 3 Consecutive Red Days?
Chainlink has recorded 26 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.15% and 42.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -12.0% to -8.5% | 2 |
| -8.5% to -5.1% | 3 |
| -5.1% to -1.6% | 5 |
| -1.6% to +1.8% | 6 |
| +1.8% to +5.2% | 8 |
| +5.2% to +8.7% | 1 |
| +8.7% to +12.1% | 1 |
| +12.1% to +15.6% | 0 |
| +15.6% to +19.0% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 27 | 0.21% | 0.58% | 51.9% | 11.22% | -8.04% |
| 3 days | 27 | 0.65% | 0.68% | 59.3% | 19.05% | -12.00% |
| 7 days | 26 | -2.15% | -1.81% | 42.3% | 14.16% | -18.46% |
| 14 days | 26 | -2.59% | -1.21% | 42.3% | 19.10% | -23.28% |
| 30 days | 26 | -5.19% | -4.20% | 38.5% | 38.46% | -33.08% |
| 90 days | 22 | -16.59% | -14.07% | 13.6% | 35.32% | -45.38% |
Historical occurrences
27 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | -5.64 | $11.80 | -2.87% | -2.57% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-25 | -1.54 | $8.33 | +0.52% | +0.45% | -2.05% | -1.84% | +38.46% | — |
| 2026-07-09 | -2.89 | $7.63 | +1.23% | +3.61% | +11.79% | +12.98% | +7.16% | — |
| 2026-06-26 | -2.37 | $7.24 | +1.43% | +0.23% | +6.89% | +6.76% | +15.73% | — |
| 2026-06-19 | -0.98 | $8.00 | -0.87% | -2.86% | -9.56% | -3.33% | +4.25% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | -7.52 | $8.36 | -0.44% | -12.00% | -6.34% | -1.14% | -7.49% | +35.32% |
| 2026-05-29 | -1.42 | $8.99 | +0.21% | +1.57% | -10.99% | -12.43% | -18.98% | +29.19% |
| 2026-05-18 | -1.57 | $9.56 | +0.40% | +0.65% | -1.43% | -4.45% | -13.52% | -1.05% |
| 2026-05-14 | -0.66 | $10.21 | +2.56% | -4.88% | -5.76% | -10.66% | -23.03% | -14.13% |
| 2026-04-30 | -1.40 | $9.11 | -0.12% | +0.67% | +9.71% | +12.08% | -1.08% | -7.37% |
| 2026-03-29 | -1.35 | $8.44 | -0.35% | +3.88% | +3.03% | +7.42% | +10.44% | -13.02% |
| 2026-03-21 | -6.62 | $9.12 | +9.65% | +5.14% | -6.19% | -5.07% | -0.62% | -12.24% |
| 2026-03-02 | -0.49 | $9.43 | +2.28% | +4.74% | +1.12% | +8.70% | -6.98% | -2.52% |
| 2026-02-20 | -0.16 | $9.78 | -0.28% | -2.85% | +0.29% | +0.85% | +2.26% | -1.61% |
| 2026-02-06 | -15.90 | $8.21 | +11.22% | +19.05% | +14.16% | +19.10% | +23.70% | +21.72% |
| 2026-01-31 | -3.72 | $11.20 | -8.04% | -9.14% | -18.46% | -13.19% | -15.85% | -18.76% |
| 2026-01-20 | -2.60 | $13.27 | -4.51% | -2.26% | -4.86% | -23.28% | -26.16% | -31.67% |
| 2025-12-26 | -1.69 | $12.06 | +0.95% | +3.44% | +4.68% | +9.59% | +11.47% | -15.99% |
| 2025-12-13 | -3.04 | $13.64 | +0.71% | -5.72% | -8.17% | -10.74% | +2.83% | -27.47% |
| 2025-11-30 | -1.07 | $12.99 | -0.14% | +3.85% | +7.10% | +5.73% | -5.42% | -25.92% |
| 2025-11-22 | -6.28 | $12.12 | +0.43% | +7.00% | +8.37% | +12.17% | +2.71% | -19.28% |
| 2025-11-14 | -4.03 | $14.53 | -4.90% | -5.47% | -11.01% | -8.17% | -5.46% | -37.83% |
| 2025-10-17 | -3.59 | $17.41 | -4.54% | -0.76% | +0.07% | -3.56% | -18.88% | -17.19% |
| 2025-10-12 | -0.79 | $17.21 | +10.55% | +11.07% | -2.25% | +4.69% | -4.96% | -20.75% |
| 2025-10-06 | -0.15 | $21.99 | +6.65% | +2.88% | -13.48% | -21.45% | -33.08% | -39.92% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +14.16%
- 2026-07-09: +11.79%
- 2026-04-30: +9.71%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-31: -18.46%
- 2025-10-06: -13.48%
- 2025-11-14: -11.01%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded once when the daily reference price has declined for 3 consecutive UTC days. Longer uninterrupted streaks do not create duplicate occurrences.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.