Transparent historical data
What Happens to Chainlink After a 15% Seven-Day Drop?
Chainlink has recorded 10 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.76% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -12.6% to -10.2% | 1 |
| -10.2% to -7.8% | 2 |
| -7.8% to -5.4% | 0 |
| -5.4% to -3.0% | 1 |
| -3.0% to -0.6% | 0 |
| -0.6% to +1.7% | 1 |
| +1.7% to +4.1% | 1 |
| +4.1% to +6.5% | 1 |
| +6.5% to +8.9% | 3 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 11 | -0.35% | 0.02% | 45.5% | 4.97% | -3.82% |
| 3 days | 10 | 0.51% | 0.94% | 50.0% | 14.57% | -12.42% |
| 7 days | 10 | -0.76% | 0.46% | 50.0% | 12.78% | -8.83% |
| 14 days | 10 | 1.73% | -0.02% | 60.0% | 8.92% | -12.62% |
| 30 days | 10 | -7.17% | -4.94% | 30.0% | 15.10% | -23.84% |
| 90 days | 10 | -22.04% | -15.68% | 10.0% | 60.75% | -39.27% |
Historical occurrences
11 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | -15.32 | $11.21 | +2.73% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -18.33 | $7.36 | +0.41% | +8.59% | +6.78% | +7.80% | +9.41% | +60.75% |
| 2026-03-29 | -15.60 | $8.44 | -0.35% | +3.88% | +3.03% | +7.42% | +10.44% | -13.02% |
| 2026-02-01 | -23.38 | $10.30 | -3.73% | -3.80% | -8.83% | -3.30% | -6.40% | -11.72% |
| 2025-12-19 | -15.17 | $11.93 | +4.97% | +4.30% | +1.07% | +5.80% | +15.10% | -17.20% |
| 2025-11-18 | -18.63 | $13.31 | +3.49% | -2.86% | -2.58% | -9.28% | -7.93% | -27.98% |
| 2025-11-04 | -16.34 | $15.23 | -3.37% | -3.34% | +7.40% | -12.62% | -3.71% | -34.89% |
| 2025-10-16 | -20.19 | $18.06 | -3.59% | -6.83% | -4.72% | +0.34% | -23.48% | -20.25% |
| 2025-10-14 | -15.26 | $19.88 | -3.82% | -12.42% | -6.14% | -8.41% | -23.84% | -29.44% |
| 2025-10-11 | -22.99 | $17.35 | -0.79% | +14.57% | -4.21% | +3.11% | -8.23% | -23.82% |
| 2025-09-26 | -18.08 | $20.20 | +4.24% | +7.30% | +12.78% | +8.92% | -10.80% | -39.27% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +12.78%
- 2025-11-04: +7.40%
- 2026-06-06: +6.78%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-01: -8.83%
- 2025-10-14: -6.14%
- 2025-10-16: -4.72%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -15%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.