Transparent historical data
What Happens to Chainlink After a 10% One-Day Rise?
Chainlink has recorded 5 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 6.47% and 60.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -2.9% to -1.6% | 1 |
| -1.6% to -0.3% | 0 |
| -0.3% to +1.0% | 0 |
| +1.0% to +2.3% | 1 |
| +2.3% to +3.6% | 1 |
| +3.6% to +4.8% | 1 |
| +4.8% to +6.1% | 0 |
| +6.1% to +7.4% | 0 |
| +7.4% to +8.7% | 1 |
All forward horizons
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Historical occurrences
5 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 12.20 | $11.99 | -2.87% | -3.09% | -4.67% | -3.01% | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 10.69 | $10.55 | +1.34% | +10.44% | +10.17% | +5.33% | — | — |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.22 | $9.13 | +2.81% | -3.16% | +6.47% | +6.78% | +4.36% | +7.87% |
| 2025-12-03 | 11.73 | $13.49 | +8.71% | +0.75% | +6.85% | -4.21% | -6.43% | -28.54% |
| 2025-10-13 | 10.55 | $19.03 | +4.46% | -5.10% | -9.21% | -2.58% | -19.61% | -25.94% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +10.17%
- 2025-12-03: +6.85%
- 2026-02-07: +6.47%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-13: -9.21%
- 2026-08-22: -4.67%
- 2026-02-07: +6.47%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.