Transparent historical data
What Happens to Chainlink After a 1.5x Volume Spike?
Chainlink has recorded 24 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.57% and 41.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -18.5% to -13.8% | 2 |
| -13.8% to -9.2% | 3 |
| -9.2% to -4.6% | 2 |
| -4.6% to +0.0% | 7 |
| +0.0% to +4.6% | 3 |
| +4.6% to +9.3% | 2 |
| +9.3% to +13.9% | 3 |
| +13.9% to +18.5% | 1 |
| +18.5% to +23.1% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 24 | -0.81% | -0.98% | 41.7% | 11.22% | -8.06% |
| 3 days | 24 | -0.20% | 0.74% | 50.0% | 19.05% | -19.32% |
| 7 days | 24 | -2.57% | -0.13% | 41.7% | 23.11% | -18.46% |
| 14 days | 22 | -3.94% | -2.11% | 40.9% | 28.73% | -23.28% |
| 30 days | 20 | -8.87% | -7.24% | 25.0% | 30.75% | -41.39% |
| 90 days | 18 | -19.83% | -16.44% | 11.1% | 38.76% | -37.15% |
Historical occurrences
24 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | 1.89 | $13.24 | -3.73% | -10.82% | -15.32% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 1.60 | $11.83 | -1.70% | +11.87% | -3.09% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-01 | 1.58 | $11.32 | -0.79% | +4.54% | +12.58% | +1.73% | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 3.65 | $10.55 | +1.34% | +10.44% | +10.17% | +5.33% | — | — |
| 2026-08-16 | 2.77 | $9.46 | -0.83% | +0.71% | +23.11% | +21.07% | +21.70% | — |
| 2026-08-12 | 2.19 | $8.77 | -1.22% | +2.22% | +8.65% | +28.73% | +30.75% | — |
| 2026-06-05 | 1.63 | $8.01 | -8.06% | -1.22% | -1.61% | -0.02% | -0.07% | +38.76% |
| 2026-05-09 | 1.77 | $10.35 | +0.25% | +2.26% | -2.71% | -9.05% | -23.57% | -20.91% |
| 2026-05-05 | 2.13 | $9.35 | +4.41% | +5.34% | +13.13% | +2.64% | -10.96% | -10.47% |
| 2026-04-08 | 1.62 | $9.33 | -5.09% | -2.55% | -3.14% | +0.78% | +5.65% | -14.06% |
| 2026-03-24 | 1.65 | $9.59 | +3.80% | +0.63% | -10.14% | -8.18% | -3.08% | -18.92% |
| 2026-03-17 | 2.15 | $10.26 | +1.31% | -4.81% | -6.54% | -16.02% | -9.71% | -20.37% |
| 2026-02-26 | 1.67 | $9.73 | +0.78% | -2.66% | +1.45% | -7.47% | -12.08% | -3.66% |
| 2026-02-06 | 2.28 | $8.21 | +11.22% | +19.05% | +14.16% | +19.10% | +23.70% | +21.72% |
| 2026-02-03 | 1.76 | $10.18 | -2.65% | -19.32% | -13.10% | -1.46% | -2.99% | -10.38% |
| 2026-01-31 | 1.62 | $11.20 | -8.04% | -9.14% | -18.46% | -13.19% | -15.85% | -18.76% |
| 2026-01-20 | 1.52 | $13.27 | -4.51% | -2.26% | -4.86% | -23.28% | -26.16% | -31.67% |
| 2026-01-14 | 1.52 | $14.40 | +0.12% | -1.04% | -12.03% | -11.58% | -34.90% | -34.89% |
| 2026-01-07 | 1.56 | $14.01 | -4.15% | -2.63% | +2.78% | -9.58% | -41.39% | -37.15% |
| 2025-12-04 | 1.60 | $14.67 | -2.83% | -5.13% | -3.84% | -16.44% | -9.51% | -34.21% |
| 2025-11-22 | 1.60 | $12.12 | +0.43% | +7.00% | +8.37% | +12.17% | +2.71% | -19.28% |
| 2025-11-05 | 1.73 | $14.72 | +2.82% | +7.38% | +3.93% | -6.41% | -3.17% | -30.84% |
| 2025-10-21 | 1.53 | $18.66 | -5.60% | -6.62% | -2.42% | -18.36% | -27.57% | -26.99% |
| 2025-10-11 | 4.00 | $17.35 | -0.79% | +14.57% | -4.21% | +3.11% | -8.23% | -23.82% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-16: +23.11%
- 2026-02-06: +14.16%
- 2026-05-05: +13.13%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-31: -18.46%
- 2026-09-07: -15.32%
- 2026-02-03: -13.10%
How this study works
Daily volume is compared with the median of the preceding 30 complete observations.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.