Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25?
Cardano has recorded 14 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.03% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -36.1% to -31.2% | 1 |
| -31.2% to -26.4% | 0 |
| -26.4% to -21.6% | 0 |
| -21.6% to -16.7% | 2 |
| -16.7% to -11.9% | 3 |
| -11.9% to -7.1% | 3 |
| -7.1% to -2.2% | 2 |
| -2.2% to +2.6% | 1 |
| +2.6% to +7.4% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 14 | -0.72% | -0.05% | 35.7% | 10.78% | -5.47% |
| 3 days | 14 | 1.66% | 0.80% | 57.1% | 11.61% | -14.36% |
| 7 days | 14 | 0.03% | -0.43% | 50.0% | 18.48% | -26.56% |
| 14 days | 14 | -9.76% | -10.81% | 14.3% | 7.42% | -36.06% |
| 30 days | 14 | -16.67% | -12.49% | 28.6% | 18.97% | -35.59% |
| 90 days | 11 | -31.97% | -32.30% | 0.0% | -6.81% | -46.29% |
Historical occurrences
14 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 25.00 | $0.19 | -0.36% | +3.86% | -1.47% | -10.03% | +3.85% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 25.00 | $0.17 | -0.95% | +11.61% | +18.48% | +7.42% | +18.97% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 22.00 | $0.16 | +5.11% | +2.12% | +7.75% | -1.23% | +15.92% | — |
| 2026-05-24 | 25.00 | $0.25 | -1.50% | -2.43% | -4.08% | -36.06% | -35.59% | -6.81% |
| 2026-05-19 | 25.00 | $0.25 | -1.36% | -0.50% | -3.25% | -8.22% | -33.71% | -30.49% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $0.35 | -4.72% | -14.36% | -26.56% | -18.14% | -14.99% | -29.29% |
| 2026-01-21 | 24.00 | $0.36 | +3.76% | +3.00% | +3.37% | -16.23% | -20.28% | -31.97% |
| 2026-01-10 | 25.00 | $0.40 | +0.23% | -1.24% | +1.40% | -7.03% | -26.53% | -37.07% |
| 2025-12-13 | 23.00 | $0.41 | +0.41% | -5.16% | -8.01% | -14.59% | +0.09% | -30.39% |
| 2025-12-06 | 23.00 | $0.42 | -0.48% | +3.93% | -1.61% | -9.49% | -3.34% | -30.99% |
| 2025-11-04 | 21.00 | $0.55 | -5.47% | -3.63% | +7.39% | -15.59% | -18.34% | -46.29% |
| 2025-10-22 | 25.00 | $0.64 | -3.02% | +2.13% | +0.52% | -18.86% | -32.70% | -41.22% |
| 2025-10-17 | 22.00 | $0.64 | -3.14% | +1.19% | -0.30% | -6.83% | -21.95% | -34.73% |
| 2025-10-12 | 24.00 | $0.63 | +10.78% | +10.65% | +0.36% | +3.50% | -6.29% | -36.08% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-07-31: +18.48%
- 2026-07-14: +7.75%
- 2025-11-04: +7.39%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -26.56%
- 2025-12-13: -8.01%
- 2026-05-24: -4.08%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.