Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 25, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Cardano
14 historical signal(s) detected for Cardano; 11 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025-10-19 | $0.6321 | $0.6343 | +0.36% | 100.36 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-29 | $0.6426 | $0.6460 | +0.52% | 100.88 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $0.5515 | $0.5923 | +7.39% | 108.34 |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-12-13 | $0.4158 | $0.4091 | -1.61% | 106.60 |
| 2025-12-13 | 2025-12-20 | $0.4091 | $0.3764 | -8.01% | 98.06 |
| 2026-01-10 | 2026-01-17 | $0.4041 | $0.4097 | +1.40% | 99.44 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $0.3647 | $0.3770 | +3.37% | 102.79 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $0.3459 | $0.2541 | -26.56% | 75.49 |
| 2026-05-19 | 2026-05-26 | $0.2515 | $0.2433 | -3.25% | 73.04 |
| 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-21 | $0.1574 | $0.1696 | +7.75% | 78.70 |
| 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-07 | $0.1697 | $0.2010 | +18.48% | 93.24 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.