Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20?
Cardano has recorded 12 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -6.45% and 16.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -29.3% to -23.1% | 1 |
| -23.1% to -16.9% | 4 |
| -16.9% to -10.7% | 2 |
| -10.7% to -4.6% | 2 |
| -4.6% to +1.6% | 1 |
| +1.6% to +7.8% | 0 |
| +7.8% to +14.0% | 0 |
| +14.0% to +20.1% | 1 |
| +20.1% to +26.3% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 12 | -1.94% | -1.38% | 33.3% | 7.06% | -6.08% |
| 3 days | 12 | -1.06% | -1.45% | 50.0% | 16.68% | -26.34% |
| 7 days | 12 | -6.45% | -7.54% | 16.7% | 20.64% | -26.56% |
| 14 days | 12 | -16.00% | -9.59% | 16.7% | 26.32% | -29.26% |
| 30 days | 12 | -13.52% | -8.97% | 33.3% | 15.13% | -27.85% |
| 90 days | 11 | -29.72% | -32.16% | 0.0% | -7.00% | -56.05% |
Historical occurrences
12 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 20.00 | $0.17 | -4.38% | -4.57% | -5.26% | -0.61% | +15.13% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 11.00 | $0.21 | -5.85% | -26.34% | -22.33% | -19.00% | -24.14% | -7.00% |
| 2026-03-20 | 11.00 | $0.28 | -6.08% | -4.96% | -4.92% | -15.33% | -12.05% | -41.18% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $0.35 | -4.72% | -14.36% | -26.56% | -18.14% | -14.99% | -29.29% |
| 2026-01-26 | 20.00 | $0.36 | +2.33% | +4.18% | -16.84% | -16.66% | -22.38% | -29.72% |
| 2026-01-22 | 20.00 | $0.38 | -0.89% | +3.62% | -1.93% | -20.77% | -20.16% | -33.98% |
| 2026-01-01 | 20.00 | $0.33 | +7.06% | +16.68% | +20.64% | +26.32% | -1.11% | -27.31% |
| 2025-12-26 | 20.00 | $0.34 | +1.83% | +7.31% | +3.98% | +15.38% | +14.26% | -17.22% |
| 2025-12-15 | 16.00 | $0.40 | -2.15% | -7.53% | -7.64% | -7.13% | +8.57% | -27.05% |
| 2025-12-07 | 20.00 | $0.41 | +0.80% | +13.64% | -0.73% | -9.85% | +1.96% | -33.17% |
| 2025-11-13 | 15.00 | $0.54 | -2.74% | -7.57% | -15.06% | -20.00% | -24.89% | -51.83% |
| 2025-11-08 | 20.00 | $0.58 | -1.73% | +2.46% | -13.84% | -29.26% | -27.85% | -56.05% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-01: +20.64%
- 2025-12-26: +3.98%
- 2025-12-07: -0.73%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -26.56%
- 2026-06-03: -22.33%
- 2026-01-26: -16.84%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.