Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 20, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Cardano
12 historical signal(s) detected for Cardano; 9 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-11-15 | $0.5781 | $0.4981 | -13.84% | 86.16 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-12-14 | $0.4138 | $0.4108 | -0.73% | 85.53 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-22 | $0.3965 | $0.3663 | -7.64% | 79.00 |
| 2025-12-26 | 2026-01-02 | $0.3432 | $0.3568 | +3.98% | 82.14 |
| 2026-01-22 | 2026-01-29 | $0.3784 | $0.3711 | -1.93% | 80.56 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $0.3459 | $0.2541 | -26.56% | 59.16 |
| 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-27 | $0.2835 | $0.2695 | -4.92% | 56.25 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $0.2127 | $0.1652 | -22.33% | 43.69 |
| 2026-07-08 | 2026-07-15 | $0.1746 | $0.1654 | -5.26% | 41.39 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.