Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano After Funding Enters Its Bottom 5th Percentile?
Cardano has recorded 22 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.66% and 36.4% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -9.0% to -6.7% | 1 |
| -6.7% to -4.4% | 2 |
| -4.4% to -2.1% | 4 |
| -2.1% to +0.1% | 7 |
| +0.1% to +2.4% | 1 |
| +2.4% to +4.7% | 3 |
| +4.7% to +6.9% | 1 |
| +6.9% to +9.2% | 2 |
| +9.2% to +11.5% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 22 | -0.77% | 0.14% | 40.9% | 11.48% | -8.95% |
| 3 days | 22 | -0.54% | 1.11% | 45.5% | 16.85% | -8.16% |
| 7 days | 22 | -1.66% | 0.19% | 36.4% | 32.34% | -15.49% |
| 14 days | 22 | 1.08% | 0.52% | 59.1% | 26.32% | -32.21% |
| 30 days | 22 | -3.45% | -1.52% | 40.9% | 38.46% | -37.43% |
| 90 days | 19 | -20.07% | -17.61% | 21.1% | 31.12% | -43.79% |
Historical occurrences
22 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | -0.02 | $0.16 | +0.54% | -5.11% | +2.58% | +22.58% | +38.46% | — |
| 2026-07-10 | -0.02 | $0.17 | +0.10% | -2.69% | -3.46% | +1.17% | +19.76% | — |
| 2026-06-28 | -0.02 | $0.15 | -1.01% | -0.62% | +32.34% | +14.14% | +7.12% | — |
| 2026-06-17 | -0.02 | $0.17 | -3.22% | -5.96% | -12.17% | -16.29% | -6.71% | +21.05% |
| 2026-06-14 | -0.02 | $0.17 | +6.53% | +0.34% | -4.98% | -15.47% | -8.32% | +20.14% |
| 2026-06-09 | -0.02 | $0.17 | -3.02% | +0.00% | +4.79% | -7.04% | -1.98% | +31.12% |
| 2026-05-28 | -0.02 | $0.24 | -0.95% | -0.46% | -15.49% | -32.21% | -37.43% | -11.74% |
| 2026-04-27 | -0.02 | $0.25 | -1.59% | -3.04% | -1.11% | +11.97% | -4.91% | -34.71% |
| 2026-04-12 | -0.03 | $0.25 | -5.28% | -3.84% | -0.11% | +0.32% | +12.20% | -33.23% |
| 2026-04-07 | -0.02 | $0.25 | +7.43% | +3.49% | +1.27% | +0.98% | +8.72% | -22.91% |
| 2026-04-01 | -0.03 | $0.24 | +2.71% | +1.77% | +8.95% | -0.95% | +1.62% | -39.91% |
| 2026-03-29 | -0.02 | $0.25 | -2.41% | -1.48% | +0.84% | +1.49% | +0.96% | -39.72% |
| 2026-03-22 | -0.02 | $0.29 | -6.53% | -1.16% | -14.68% | -13.96% | -13.91% | -43.79% |
| 2026-03-14 | -0.03 | $0.28 | +3.76% | +7.77% | -4.52% | -11.61% | -15.21% | -38.91% |
| 2026-03-04 | -0.02 | $0.28 | +2.90% | -2.00% | -2.10% | +8.16% | -14.96% | -18.21% |
| 2026-02-21 | -0.02 | $0.30 | -0.21% | -7.57% | -2.86% | -8.46% | -10.83% | -17.17% |
| 2026-02-09 | -0.02 | $0.30 | -8.95% | -8.16% | -1.57% | -4.65% | -6.94% | -8.72% |
| 2026-02-06 | -0.04 | $0.25 | +11.48% | +16.85% | +11.46% | +14.43% | +8.76% | +5.13% |
| 2026-02-01 | -0.03 | $0.30 | -1.97% | +1.09% | -7.45% | +4.49% | -5.03% | -17.85% |
| 2026-01-01 | -0.02 | $0.33 | +7.06% | +16.68% | +20.64% | +26.32% | -1.11% | -27.31% |
| 2025-12-25 | -0.02 | $0.36 | -3.71% | +3.74% | -6.48% | +12.82% | +5.40% | -20.07% |
| 2025-10-11 | -0.03 | $0.64 | -0.60% | +14.77% | -1.76% | +3.21% | -9.06% | -37.73% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-06-28: +32.34%
- 2026-01-01: +20.64%
- 2026-02-06: +11.46%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-05-28: -15.49%
- 2026-03-22: -14.68%
- 2026-06-17: -12.17%
How this study works
The normalized funding rate is compared with its 5th percentile calculated only from earlier intervals. At least 270 prior observations are required, preventing future information from influencing historical triggers.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.