Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano After a 5% One-Day Rise?
Cardano has recorded 29 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.99% and 31.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -18.0% to -14.5% | 3 |
| -14.5% to -11.0% | 2 |
| -11.0% to -7.5% | 3 |
| -7.5% to -4.0% | 7 |
| -4.0% to -0.5% | 3 |
| -0.5% to +3.0% | 4 |
| +3.0% to +6.5% | 2 |
| +6.5% to +10.0% | 2 |
| +10.0% to +13.6% | 3 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 29 | -0.88% | -0.47% | 31.0% | 10.97% | -8.95% |
| 3 days | 29 | -2.73% | -0.35% | 37.9% | 24.87% | -13.00% |
| 7 days | 29 | -3.99% | -2.99% | 31.0% | 13.56% | -18.02% |
| 14 days | 28 | -5.36% | -6.22% | 21.4% | 13.17% | -29.26% |
| 30 days | 27 | -5.36% | -7.21% | 29.6% | 10.18% | -34.23% |
| 90 days | 22 | -31.82% | -25.32% | 13.6% | 32.21% | -58.74% |
Historical occurrences
29 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 10.03 | $0.22 | -4.49% | +0.98% | -7.49% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.24 | $0.19 | +6.39% | +20.89% | +13.56% | +7.47% | — | — |
| 2026-08-07 | 5.17 | $0.20 | -0.11% | -3.28% | -9.34% | -1.02% | +8.59% | — |
| 2026-08-03 | 8.65 | $0.19 | +2.20% | +0.93% | +2.67% | -7.69% | +3.82% | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 5.11 | $0.17 | -0.24% | +0.80% | +4.91% | -2.19% | +10.18% | — |
| 2026-07-04 | 11.45 | $0.18 | +6.82% | +2.34% | -7.31% | -7.25% | +5.34% | — |
| 2026-07-02 | 6.65 | $0.15 | +4.89% | +24.87% | +8.56% | +7.30% | +9.27% | — |
| 2026-06-15 | 6.53 | $0.18 | -2.41% | -8.84% | -14.40% | -21.46% | -9.55% | +13.37% |
| 2026-06-12 | 6.07 | $0.17 | -0.42% | +7.37% | -3.99% | -15.66% | -2.76% | +24.40% |
| 2026-06-08 | 5.03 | $0.17 | +3.17% | -2.73% | +10.77% | -5.17% | +5.76% | +32.21% |
| 2026-04-17 | 5.30 | $0.26 | -0.27% | -6.47% | -3.70% | -5.15% | -1.73% | -36.42% |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.25 | $0.25 | -3.55% | +4.32% | -0.28% | -0.22% | +6.40% | -34.89% |
| 2026-04-08 | 7.43 | $0.26 | -5.12% | -3.73% | -9.08% | -5.35% | -0.43% | -30.30% |
| 2026-03-22 | 8.26 | $0.29 | -6.53% | -1.16% | -14.68% | -13.96% | -13.91% | -43.79% |
| 2026-03-13 | 8.35 | $0.28 | -2.11% | +2.04% | -0.47% | -5.37% | -12.37% | -43.61% |
| 2026-02-26 | 11.89 | $0.31 | -3.34% | -4.94% | -6.14% | -15.04% | -20.34% | -22.47% |
| 2026-02-17 | 5.35 | $0.31 | -3.57% | -5.56% | -9.29% | -6.77% | -6.73% | -18.13% |
| 2026-02-15 | 8.39 | $0.32 | -7.46% | -5.99% | -4.53% | -6.87% | -4.85% | -17.19% |
| 2026-02-09 | 6.15 | $0.30 | -8.95% | -8.16% | -1.57% | -4.65% | -6.94% | -8.72% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.48 | $0.28 | -1.26% | -4.57% | +2.86% | +6.67% | -5.36% | -7.21% |
| 2026-01-14 | 7.89 | $0.43 | -2.21% | -4.83% | -15.29% | -12.44% | -34.23% | -42.21% |
| 2026-01-02 | 7.06 | $0.36 | +10.97% | +12.64% | +10.97% | +13.17% | -15.31% | -30.26% |
| 2025-12-28 | 5.80 | $0.37 | -0.39% | -5.07% | +5.18% | +9.54% | -1.41% | -33.34% |
| 2025-12-20 | 7.10 | $0.38 | -0.88% | -1.56% | -7.15% | +5.21% | +2.41% | -24.69% |
| 2025-12-10 | 8.81 | $0.47 | -3.55% | -13.00% | -18.02% | -22.82% | -15.80% | -43.02% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +13.56%
- 2026-01-02: +10.97%
- 2026-06-08: +10.77%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-12-10: -18.02%
- 2026-01-14: -15.29%
- 2026-03-22: -14.68%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.