Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano After a 3% One-Day Rise?
Cardano has recorded 54 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.28% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -30.4% to -25.3% | 3 |
| -25.3% to -20.2% | 4 |
| -20.2% to -15.1% | 5 |
| -15.1% to -10.0% | 9 |
| -10.0% to -4.9% | 9 |
| -4.9% to +0.2% | 7 |
| +0.2% to +5.3% | 6 |
| +5.3% to +10.4% | 5 |
| +10.4% to +15.5% | 4 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 54 | -0.66% | -0.36% | 33.3% | 10.97% | -9.15% |
| 3 days | 54 | -1.40% | 0.00% | 46.3% | 24.87% | -18.27% |
| 7 days | 54 | -3.28% | -2.17% | 33.3% | 21.28% | -22.93% |
| 14 days | 52 | -5.37% | -6.58% | 28.8% | 15.54% | -30.41% |
| 30 days | 51 | -12.37% | -11.76% | 23.5% | 32.14% | -41.52% |
| 90 days | 43 | -34.15% | -30.16% | 7.0% | 32.21% | -58.74% |
Historical occurrences
54 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 3.34 | $0.22 | +2.31% | +0.52% | -5.01% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 10.03 | $0.22 | -4.49% | +0.98% | -7.49% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.24 | $0.19 | +6.39% | +20.89% | +13.56% | +7.47% | — | — |
| 2026-08-07 | 5.17 | $0.20 | -0.11% | -3.28% | -9.34% | -1.02% | +8.59% | — |
| 2026-08-02 | 3.72 | $0.17 | +8.65% | +10.64% | +14.38% | +1.13% | +13.46% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 4.73 | $0.17 | -0.95% | +11.61% | +18.48% | +7.42% | +18.97% | — |
| 2026-07-29 | 4.09 | $0.16 | +0.12% | +3.86% | +19.19% | +15.54% | +32.14% | — |
| 2026-07-18 | 3.75 | $0.17 | -0.06% | +1.70% | -1.75% | +0.78% | +4.84% | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 5.11 | $0.17 | -0.24% | +0.80% | +4.91% | -2.19% | +10.18% | — |
| 2026-07-02 | 6.65 | $0.15 | +4.89% | +24.87% | +8.56% | +7.30% | +9.27% | — |
| 2026-06-27 | 3.19 | $0.15 | -2.11% | -1.79% | +21.28% | +12.41% | +11.90% | — |
| 2026-06-15 | 6.53 | $0.18 | -2.41% | -8.84% | -14.40% | -21.46% | -9.55% | +13.37% |
| 2026-06-12 | 6.07 | $0.17 | -0.42% | +7.37% | -3.99% | -15.66% | -2.76% | +24.40% |
| 2026-06-08 | 5.03 | $0.17 | +3.17% | -2.73% | +10.77% | -5.17% | +5.76% | +32.21% |
| 2026-05-11 | 4.23 | $0.28 | -0.87% | -6.28% | -10.77% | -14.27% | -41.52% | -29.42% |
| 2026-05-09 | 4.08 | $0.27 | -0.93% | +2.37% | -4.39% | -11.40% | -39.64% | -26.51% |
| 2026-05-06 | 4.88 | $0.26 | +1.91% | +4.36% | +3.38% | -5.36% | -31.46% | -26.16% |
| 2026-04-17 | 5.30 | $0.26 | -0.27% | -6.47% | -3.70% | -5.15% | -1.73% | -36.42% |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.25 | $0.25 | -3.55% | +4.32% | -0.28% | -0.22% | +6.40% | -34.89% |
| 2026-04-08 | 7.43 | $0.26 | -5.12% | -3.73% | -9.08% | -5.35% | -0.43% | -30.30% |
| 2026-03-22 | 8.26 | $0.29 | -6.53% | -1.16% | -14.68% | -13.96% | -13.91% | -43.79% |
| 2026-03-17 | 3.39 | $0.30 | +1.58% | -5.66% | -7.90% | -18.97% | -17.97% | -39.13% |
| 2026-03-15 | 3.76 | $0.29 | +0.45% | +5.51% | -0.38% | -15.00% | -13.99% | -41.37% |
| 2026-03-13 | 8.35 | $0.28 | -2.11% | +2.04% | -0.47% | -5.37% | -12.37% | -43.61% |
| 2026-03-11 | 3.10 | $0.28 | -4.86% | +0.92% | +10.48% | +3.11% | -7.96% | -38.35% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-06-27: +21.28%
- 2026-07-29: +19.19%
- 2026-07-31: +18.48%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-25: -22.93%
- 2026-01-28: -18.96%
- 2025-10-07: -16.53%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.