Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano After a 20% Seven-Day Drop?
Cardano has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -6.01% and 16.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -25.5% to -21.7% | 1 |
| -21.7% to -17.9% | 1 |
| -17.9% to -14.1% | 0 |
| -14.1% to -10.3% | 0 |
| -10.3% to -6.5% | 1 |
| -6.5% to -2.7% | 1 |
| -2.7% to +1.1% | 0 |
| +1.1% to +4.9% | 0 |
| +4.9% to +8.8% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | -1.29% | -0.91% | 33.3% | 11.48% | -12.81% |
| 3 days | 6 | -2.04% | 2.06% | 50.0% | 16.85% | -8.11% |
| 7 days | 6 | -6.01% | -2.99% | 16.7% | 11.46% | -8.14% |
| 14 days | 6 | -0.57% | -1.39% | 50.0% | 14.43% | -17.15% |
| 30 days | 6 | -7.04% | -7.54% | 33.3% | 8.76% | -25.53% |
| 90 days | 6 | -26.74% | -18.57% | 33.3% | 11.88% | -37.73% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | -23.44 | $0.18 | -12.81% | -8.11% | -5.19% | -8.98% | +6.89% | +11.88% |
| 2026-02-06 | -26.56 | $0.25 | +11.48% | +16.85% | +11.46% | +14.43% | +8.76% | +5.13% |
| 2026-02-01 | -22.93 | $0.30 | -1.97% | +1.09% | -7.45% | +4.49% | -5.03% | -17.85% |
| 2025-11-18 | -21.40 | $0.47 | +2.00% | -7.11% | -8.14% | -17.15% | -21.24% | -37.24% |
| 2025-10-16 | -20.27 | $0.67 | -3.57% | -5.17% | -6.83% | -4.34% | -25.53% | -35.63% |
| 2025-10-11 | -26.63 | $0.64 | -0.60% | +14.77% | -1.76% | +3.21% | -9.06% | -37.73% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +11.46%
- 2025-10-11: -1.76%
- 2026-06-05: -5.19%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-11-18: -8.14%
- 2026-02-01: -7.45%
- 2025-10-16: -6.83%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -20%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.