Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 10% Seven-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 10% seven-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Cardano
18 historical signal(s) detected for Cardano; 17 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (1 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-25 | 2025-10-02 | $0.8126 | $0.8506 | +4.68% | 104.68 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $0.6359 | $0.6247 | -1.76% | 102.84 |
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-11-10 | $0.6106 | $0.5783 | -5.29% | 97.40 |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-11-22 | $0.4981 | $0.4090 | -17.90% | 79.96 |
| 2025-11-26 | 2025-12-03 | $0.4216 | $0.4336 | +2.85% | 82.24 |
| 2025-12-16 | 2025-12-23 | $0.3880 | $0.3705 | -4.52% | 78.53 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $0.3647 | $0.3770 | +3.37% | 81.17 |
| 2026-01-31 | 2026-02-07 | $0.3296 | $0.2832 | -14.07% | 69.75 |
| 2026-02-10 | 2026-02-17 | $0.2703 | $0.3079 | +13.90% | 79.45 |
| 2026-03-29 | 2026-04-05 | $0.2459 | $0.2480 | +0.84% | 80.12 |
| 2026-05-18 | 2026-05-25 | $0.2521 | $0.2421 | -3.93% | 76.97 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $0.2127 | $0.1652 | -22.33% | 59.78 |
| 2026-06-22 | 2026-06-29 | $0.1566 | $0.1436 | -8.25% | 54.85 |
| 2026-07-12 | 2026-07-19 | $0.1656 | $0.1666 | +0.61% | 55.18 |
| 2026-08-15 | 2026-08-22 | $0.1800 | $0.2291 | +27.29% | 70.25 |
| 2026-08-29 | 2026-09-05 | $0.2031 | $0.2112 | +4.00% | 73.05 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.