Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano After a 10% One-Day Rise?
Cardano has recorded 8 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -6.46% and 37.5% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -4.5% to -3.2% | 2 |
| -3.2% to -2.0% | 0 |
| -2.0% to -0.7% | 3 |
| -0.7% to +0.5% | 0 |
| +0.5% to +1.8% | 0 |
| +1.8% to +3.0% | 0 |
| +3.0% to +4.3% | 2 |
| +4.3% to +5.6% | 0 |
| +5.6% to +6.8% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 8 | -1.29% | 0.34% | 37.5% | 6.82% | -4.49% |
| 3 days | 8 | -3.72% | -1.45% | 37.5% | 6.55% | -4.94% |
| 7 days | 8 | -6.46% | -3.22% | 37.5% | 8.46% | -11.35% |
| 14 days | 7 | -7.25% | -4.82% | 28.6% | 6.67% | -15.04% |
| 30 days | 6 | -19.02% | -13.98% | 16.7% | 5.34% | -25.19% |
| 90 days | 5 | -33.81% | -29.01% | 0.0% | -7.21% | -42.16% |
Historical occurrences
8 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 10.03 | $0.22 | -4.49% | +0.98% | -7.49% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-22 | 15.15 | $0.23 | -1.32% | -3.35% | -11.35% | -7.81% | — | — |
| 2026-07-04 | 11.45 | $0.18 | +6.82% | +2.34% | -7.31% | -7.25% | +5.34% | — |
| 2026-02-26 | 11.89 | $0.31 | -3.34% | -4.94% | -6.14% | -15.04% | -20.34% | -22.47% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.48 | $0.28 | -1.26% | -4.57% | +2.86% | +6.67% | -5.36% | -7.21% |
| 2026-01-03 | 10.97 | $0.40 | -1.79% | +6.55% | +2.04% | +3.47% | -25.19% | -39.39% |
| 2025-12-03 | 12.41 | $0.43 | +3.87% | -4.10% | +8.46% | -11.08% | -17.70% | -33.81% |
| 2025-10-13 | 10.78 | $0.70 | +4.23% | -4.47% | -6.79% | -2.71% | -20.65% | -42.16% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-12-03: +8.46%
- 2026-02-07: +2.86%
- 2026-01-03: +2.04%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-08-22: -11.35%
- 2026-09-04: -7.49%
- 2026-07-04: -7.31%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.