Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano After a 1.5x Volume Spike?
Cardano has recorded 22 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.73% and 40.9% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -22.2% to -17.4% | 1 |
| -17.4% to -12.6% | 1 |
| -12.6% to -7.8% | 1 |
| -7.8% to -3.0% | 5 |
| -3.0% to +1.8% | 4 |
| +1.8% to +6.5% | 5 |
| +6.5% to +11.3% | 2 |
| +11.3% to +16.1% | 1 |
| +16.1% to +20.9% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 22 | -0.56% | 0.19% | 36.4% | 11.48% | -8.31% |
| 3 days | 22 | 0.96% | 1.02% | 63.6% | 20.89% | -22.17% |
| 7 days | 22 | -2.73% | -2.96% | 40.9% | 13.90% | -26.21% |
| 14 days | 20 | -3.08% | -4.24% | 45.0% | 14.43% | -27.41% |
| 30 days | 19 | -3.32% | -6.81% | 31.6% | 8.76% | -38.16% |
| 90 days | 16 | -27.11% | -18.42% | 25.0% | 36.63% | -43.02% |
Historical occurrences
22 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | 1.57 | $0.22 | -3.42% | -6.00% | -10.96% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 2.11 | $0.22 | -4.49% | +0.98% | -7.49% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 1.66 | $0.19 | +6.39% | +20.89% | +13.56% | +7.47% | — | — |
| 2026-08-07 | 2.44 | $0.20 | -0.11% | -3.28% | -9.34% | -1.02% | +8.59% | — |
| 2026-08-03 | 2.14 | $0.19 | +2.20% | +0.93% | +2.67% | -7.69% | +3.82% | — |
| 2026-07-04 | 1.75 | $0.18 | +6.82% | +2.34% | -7.31% | -7.25% | +5.34% | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 1.95 | $0.18 | -3.48% | -8.38% | -11.28% | -18.44% | -7.54% | +14.10% |
| 2026-06-11 | 1.55 | $0.16 | +6.07% | +6.90% | +3.82% | -7.46% | +3.76% | +36.63% |
| 2026-06-02 | 1.64 | $0.23 | -7.87% | -22.17% | -26.21% | -22.67% | -33.37% | -16.53% |
| 2026-05-29 | 1.87 | $0.23 | -0.80% | +0.35% | -23.44% | -27.41% | -38.16% | -9.50% |
| 2026-05-05 | 1.54 | $0.25 | +4.88% | +5.16% | +12.04% | +0.63% | -19.89% | -24.22% |
| 2026-04-30 | 1.51 | $0.24 | +0.65% | +2.27% | +9.20% | +8.23% | -4.83% | -33.85% |
| 2026-04-22 | 1.55 | $0.25 | -0.52% | +0.25% | -1.20% | +4.92% | +0.17% | -32.12% |
| 2026-04-17 | 1.77 | $0.26 | -0.27% | -6.47% | -3.70% | -5.15% | -1.73% | -36.42% |
| 2026-04-08 | 1.69 | $0.26 | -5.12% | -3.73% | -9.08% | -5.35% | -0.43% | -30.30% |
| 2026-03-12 | 1.55 | $0.26 | +8.35% | +10.06% | +9.24% | +8.08% | -3.32% | -37.16% |
| 2026-02-10 | 1.94 | $0.27 | -2.94% | +4.77% | +13.90% | +3.31% | -2.76% | +4.50% |
| 2026-02-06 | 1.66 | $0.25 | +11.48% | +16.85% | +11.46% | +14.43% | +8.76% | +5.13% |
| 2026-01-31 | 1.61 | $0.33 | -8.31% | -5.69% | -14.07% | -11.61% | -12.48% | -25.31% |
| 2025-12-10 | 1.52 | $0.47 | -3.55% | -13.00% | -18.02% | -22.82% | -15.80% | -43.02% |
| 2025-11-22 | 1.78 | $0.41 | -1.17% | +4.57% | +2.83% | +1.68% | -10.44% | -28.91% |
| 2025-10-11 | 2.97 | $0.64 | -0.60% | +14.77% | -1.76% | +3.21% | -9.06% | -37.73% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-10: +13.90%
- 2026-08-20: +13.56%
- 2026-05-05: +12.04%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-02: -26.21%
- 2026-05-29: -23.44%
- 2025-12-10: -18.02%
How this study works
Daily volume is compared with the median of the preceding 30 complete observations.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.