Transparent historical data
What Happens to BNB When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25?
BNB has recorded 14 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.34% and 57.1% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -12.6% to -10.5% | 1 |
| -10.5% to -8.4% | 0 |
| -8.4% to -6.3% | 0 |
| -6.3% to -4.1% | 1 |
| -4.1% to -2.0% | 2 |
| -2.0% to +0.1% | 2 |
| +0.1% to +2.2% | 6 |
| +2.2% to +4.3% | 0 |
| +4.3% to +6.4% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 14 | 0.39% | 0.60% | 64.3% | 14.63% | -6.41% |
| 3 days | 14 | 0.71% | -0.35% | 64.3% | 6.45% | -12.62% |
| 7 days | 14 | 0.34% | -0.93% | 57.1% | 9.70% | -30.04% |
| 14 days | 14 | -4.27% | -5.71% | 21.4% | 7.62% | -29.23% |
| 30 days | 14 | -8.67% | -8.32% | 35.7% | 17.04% | -31.16% |
| 90 days | 11 | -23.64% | -19.94% | 9.1% | 4.74% | -32.69% |
Historical occurrences
14 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 25.00 | $588.79 | +0.67% | +0.50% | +1.67% | +2.80% | +16.89% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 25.00 | $591.70 | -0.88% | -0.66% | +0.00% | +3.11% | +17.04% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 22.00 | $566.81 | +2.57% | +0.94% | +0.67% | -0.19% | +7.58% | — |
| 2026-05-24 | 25.00 | $655.71 | +0.09% | +0.01% | +9.70% | -12.42% | -10.13% | +4.74% |
| 2026-05-19 | 25.00 | $643.06 | -0.57% | +2.21% | +3.07% | +7.62% | -6.54% | -6.31% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $867.51 | -1.20% | -12.62% | -30.04% | -29.23% | -28.79% | -28.86% |
| 2026-01-21 | 24.00 | $881.89 | +0.10% | +0.95% | +1.75% | -14.67% | -31.16% | -28.63% |
| 2026-01-10 | 25.00 | $896.35 | +1.13% | +0.92% | +4.56% | -0.68% | -28.59% | -32.69% |
| 2025-12-13 | 23.00 | $881.72 | +1.73% | -2.64% | -2.94% | -5.39% | +2.41% | -26.20% |
| 2025-12-06 | 23.00 | $883.60 | +0.79% | +1.55% | -0.21% | -3.15% | +1.43% | -26.66% |
| 2025-11-04 | 21.00 | $992.66 | -5.60% | -4.34% | -0.08% | -8.73% | -7.21% | -23.64% |
| 2025-10-22 | 25.00 | $1057.26 | +1.40% | +4.85% | +4.34% | -11.37% | -18.11% | -12.71% |
| 2025-10-17 | 22.00 | $1145.37 | -6.41% | -3.07% | -1.56% | -5.90% | -18.61% | -17.26% |
| 2025-10-12 | 24.00 | $1136.91 | +14.63% | +6.45% | -3.89% | -1.77% | -12.75% | -21.16% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-05-24: +9.70%
- 2026-01-10: +4.56%
- 2025-10-22: +4.34%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -30.04%
- 2025-10-12: -3.89%
- 2025-12-13: -2.94%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.