Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 25, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for BNB
14 historical signal(s) detected for BNB; 11 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025-10-19 | $1136.9128 | $1092.6952 | -3.89% | 96.11 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-29 | $1057.2574 | $1103.1952 | +4.34% | 100.29 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $992.6566 | $991.9074 | -0.08% | 100.21 |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-12-13 | $883.5954 | $881.7183 | -0.21% | 100.00 |
| 2025-12-13 | 2025-12-20 | $881.7183 | $855.7953 | -2.94% | 97.06 |
| 2026-01-10 | 2026-01-17 | $896.3529 | $937.2419 | +4.56% | 101.49 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $881.8890 | $897.3152 | +1.75% | 103.26 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $867.5133 | $606.9029 | -30.04% | 72.24 |
| 2026-05-19 | 2026-05-26 | $643.0630 | $662.7836 | +3.07% | 74.46 |
| 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-21 | $566.8067 | $570.6204 | +0.67% | 74.96 |
| 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-07 | $591.6968 | $591.7111 | +0.00% | 74.96 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.