Transparent historical data
What Happens to BNB When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20?
BNB has recorded 12 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.96% and 41.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -38.8% to -33.8% | 2 |
| -33.8% to -28.8% | 2 |
| -28.8% to -23.8% | 4 |
| -23.8% to -18.8% | 1 |
| -18.8% to -13.7% | 0 |
| -13.7% to -8.7% | 0 |
| -8.7% to -3.7% | 1 |
| -3.7% to +1.3% | 0 |
| +1.3% to +6.3% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 12 | -0.10% | -0.76% | 50.0% | 1.61% | -4.68% |
| 3 days | 12 | -0.10% | -1.85% | 50.0% | 4.39% | -12.62% |
| 7 days | 12 | -1.96% | -4.72% | 41.7% | 4.15% | -30.04% |
| 14 days | 12 | -6.73% | -8.67% | 16.7% | 9.85% | -29.23% |
| 30 days | 12 | -4.47% | -8.73% | 33.3% | 7.48% | -32.45% |
| 90 days | 11 | -28.44% | -23.93% | 9.1% | 6.29% | -38.78% |
Historical occurrences
12 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 20.00 | $576.61 | -1.46% | -0.26% | +0.82% | -0.53% | +2.62% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 11.00 | $650.24 | -4.68% | -12.04% | -8.79% | -7.05% | -14.17% | +6.29% |
| 2026-03-20 | 11.00 | $639.15 | +0.47% | -1.97% | -1.73% | -8.62% | -1.43% | -5.97% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $867.51 | -1.20% | -12.62% | -30.04% | -29.23% | -28.79% | -28.86% |
| 2026-01-26 | 20.00 | $864.08 | +1.61% | +4.39% | -12.27% | -25.92% | -32.45% | -27.25% |
| 2026-01-22 | 20.00 | $882.79 | +0.53% | +0.28% | +2.18% | -21.15% | -29.03% | -28.44% |
| 2026-01-01 | 20.00 | $862.69 | +0.05% | +1.79% | +4.15% | +9.85% | -0.65% | -28.58% |
| 2025-12-26 | 20.00 | $829.38 | +0.59% | +3.55% | +4.07% | +7.58% | +6.74% | -21.89% |
| 2025-12-15 | 16.00 | $877.60 | -2.18% | -3.97% | -2.19% | -2.14% | +7.48% | -25.10% |
| 2025-12-07 | 20.00 | $890.54 | +0.47% | +0.77% | +0.72% | -4.11% | +2.20% | -29.61% |
| 2025-11-13 | 15.00 | $953.38 | -3.02% | -2.21% | -5.99% | -6.42% | -7.52% | -35.04% |
| 2025-11-08 | 20.00 | $991.37 | -0.25% | +0.05% | -7.61% | -16.27% | -9.75% | -38.78% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-01: +4.15%
- 2025-12-26: +4.07%
- 2026-01-22: +2.18%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -30.04%
- 2026-01-26: -12.27%
- 2026-06-03: -8.79%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.