Transparent historical data
What Happens to BNB When Bitcoin Rises 5% in a Day?
BNB has recorded 7 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 2.18% and 57.1% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -10.6% to -8.4% | 1 |
| -8.4% to -6.3% | 1 |
| -6.3% to -4.1% | 0 |
| -4.1% to -1.9% | 1 |
| -1.9% to +0.3% | 1 |
| +0.3% to +2.5% | 0 |
| +2.5% to +4.6% | 0 |
| +4.6% to +6.8% | 0 |
| +6.8% to +9.0% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
7 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $725.08 | -0.50% | +3.81% | -2.30% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $627.05 | +4.39% | +10.89% | +12.83% | +9.76% | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $615.96 | -0.22% | +3.30% | +2.18% | +1.79% | +9.00% | -6.86% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $658.32 | -1.56% | -5.68% | -1.05% | -1.02% | -10.61% | -1.23% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $629.06 | -0.55% | -1.80% | +4.65% | +3.55% | -2.61% | +4.25% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $654.55 | -1.18% | -2.69% | -5.44% | -4.28% | -6.51% | -2.67% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $877.02 | +5.03% | +0.75% | +2.32% | -0.25% | -1.58% | -27.32% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +12.83%
- 2026-02-26: +4.65%
- 2025-12-03: +2.32%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-07: -5.44%
- 2026-09-04: -2.30%
- 2026-03-05: -1.05%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.