Transparent historical data
What Happens to BNB When Bitcoin Drops 5% in a Day?
BNB has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -5.87% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -29.2% to -25.5% | 1 |
| -25.5% to -21.8% | 0 |
| -21.8% to -18.1% | 1 |
| -18.1% to -14.5% | 0 |
| -14.5% to -10.8% | 0 |
| -10.8% to -7.1% | 0 |
| -7.1% to -3.4% | 1 |
| -3.4% to +0.3% | 1 |
| +0.3% to +4.0% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | -1.99% | -0.33% | 33.3% | 7.85% | -4.68% |
| 3 days | 6 | -3.07% | -1.35% | 33.3% | 17.20% | -12.62% |
| 7 days | 6 | -5.87% | -9.04% | 33.3% | 3.45% | -30.04% |
| 14 days | 6 | -3.50% | -8.46% | 50.0% | 4.02% | -29.23% |
| 30 days | 6 | -11.99% | -11.68% | 16.7% | 2.31% | -28.79% |
| 90 days | 6 | -20.14% | -14.39% | 33.3% | 6.76% | -30.22% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -6.44 | $650.24 | -4.68% | -12.04% | -8.79% | -7.05% | -14.17% | +6.29% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.07 | $606.90 | +7.85% | +5.47% | +1.16% | +0.04% | +2.31% | +6.76% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $779.69 | -2.78% | -3.48% | -17.04% | -18.88% | -18.25% | -21.07% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $867.51 | -1.20% | -12.62% | -30.04% | -29.23% | -28.79% | -28.86% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $865.77 | -4.13% | -2.66% | +3.45% | +4.02% | -1.37% | -30.22% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $1104.50 | +2.94% | +17.20% | -2.94% | +0.36% | -9.81% | -19.22% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-21: +3.45%
- 2026-02-06: +1.16%
- 2025-10-11: -2.94%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -30.04%
- 2026-02-01: -17.04%
- 2026-06-03: -8.79%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.