Transparent historical data
What Happens to BNB When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day?
BNB has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.08% and 47.4% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -31.2% to -25.8% | 2 |
| -25.8% to -20.4% | 1 |
| -20.4% to -15.0% | 1 |
| -15.0% to -9.6% | 2 |
| -9.6% to -4.2% | 1 |
| -4.2% to +1.2% | 5 |
| +1.2% to +6.5% | 3 |
| +6.5% to +11.9% | 1 |
| +11.9% to +17.3% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | 0.10% | -0.74% | 52.6% | 6.15% | -7.50% |
| 3 days | 19 | -0.03% | -0.33% | 47.4% | 17.20% | -13.02% |
| 7 days | 19 | -0.08% | -2.43% | 47.4% | 14.63% | -30.04% |
| 14 days | 19 | -3.10% | -2.96% | 47.4% | 31.91% | -29.23% |
| 30 days | 18 | -2.30% | -5.16% | 38.9% | 17.32% | -31.16% |
| 90 days | 18 | -18.25% | -14.00% | 11.1% | 26.77% | -32.97% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -3.30 | $711.74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -3.05 | $691.32 | +0.18% | -0.03% | +4.36% | +5.09% | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -4.47 | $571.97 | +0.40% | +5.17% | +5.51% | +1.50% | +3.01% | +26.77% |
| 2026-06-02 | -3.10 | $692.06 | -6.04% | -12.75% | -13.08% | -10.79% | -20.53% | -1.10% |
| 2026-04-13 | -3.23 | $592.06 | +4.04% | +5.26% | +4.07% | +7.41% | +12.29% | -2.96% |
| 2026-03-27 | -3.61 | $628.08 | -2.46% | -3.56% | -7.00% | -3.94% | +0.09% | -10.21% |
| 2026-03-19 | -3.76 | $651.61 | -1.91% | -4.14% | -0.58% | -6.25% | -1.24% | -7.24% |
| 2026-03-07 | -3.85 | $626.85 | -0.95% | +1.28% | +4.52% | +2.44% | -3.24% | -3.67% |
| 2026-02-23 | -4.17 | $589.47 | +1.22% | +6.72% | +4.96% | +3.81% | +8.28% | +11.24% |
| 2026-02-04 | -3.87 | $752.54 | -7.50% | -13.02% | -17.70% | -17.86% | -13.88% | -17.27% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $779.69 | -2.78% | -3.48% | -17.04% | -18.88% | -18.25% | -21.07% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $867.51 | -1.20% | -12.62% | -30.04% | -29.23% | -28.79% | -28.86% |
| 2026-01-21 | -4.48 | $881.89 | +0.10% | +0.95% | +1.75% | -14.67% | -31.16% | -28.63% |
| 2025-12-06 | -3.10 | $883.60 | +0.79% | +1.55% | -0.21% | -3.15% | +1.43% | -26.66% |
| 2025-12-02 | -4.49 | $826.18 | +6.15% | +9.00% | +8.61% | +3.90% | +4.42% | -25.11% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $865.77 | -4.13% | -2.66% | +3.45% | +4.02% | -1.37% | -30.22% |
| 2025-11-15 | -4.73 | $915.92 | +1.79% | -1.08% | -9.37% | -3.10% | -4.18% | -32.97% |
| 2025-11-04 | -3.66 | $992.66 | -5.60% | -4.34% | -0.08% | -8.73% | -7.21% | -23.64% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $1104.50 | +2.94% | +17.20% | -2.94% | +0.36% | -9.81% | -19.22% |
| 2025-09-26 | -3.60 | $951.88 | +0.89% | +4.36% | +14.63% | +31.91% | +17.32% | -11.12% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +14.63%
- 2025-12-02: +8.61%
- 2026-06-06: +5.51%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -30.04%
- 2026-02-04: -17.70%
- 2026-02-01: -17.04%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.