Transparent historical data
What Happens to BNB After a 5% One-Day Rise?
BNB has recorded 12 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.35% and 41.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -15.8% to -12.9% | 2 |
| -12.9% to -10.0% | 2 |
| -10.0% to -7.1% | 0 |
| -7.1% to -4.2% | 1 |
| -4.2% to -1.3% | 1 |
| -1.3% to +1.6% | 1 |
| +1.6% to +4.5% | 1 |
| +4.5% to +7.4% | 1 |
| +7.4% to +10.3% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 12 | -0.53% | 1.07% | 33.3% | 8.84% | -1.79% |
| 3 days | 12 | -1.83% | -1.43% | 41.7% | 7.00% | -10.67% |
| 7 days | 12 | -3.35% | -2.47% | 41.7% | 15.07% | -20.16% |
| 14 days | 10 | -3.81% | -4.30% | 30.0% | 10.32% | -15.78% |
| 30 days | 10 | -5.51% | -10.62% | 20.0% | 5.54% | -26.51% |
| 90 days | 10 | -19.45% | -12.07% | 20.0% | 26.91% | -30.44% |
Historical occurrences
12 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 6.23 | $766.41 | -1.79% | -1.86% | -5.09% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 5.35 | $725.08 | -0.50% | +3.81% | -2.30% | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-08 | 5.16 | $603.90 | -0.39% | -2.93% | +2.05% | -3.34% | -4.52% | +26.91% |
| 2026-05-31 | 11.95 | $719.28 | -1.33% | -9.60% | -20.16% | -15.29% | -22.34% | -3.89% |
| 2026-02-26 | 7.77 | $629.06 | -0.55% | -1.80% | +4.65% | +3.55% | -2.61% | +4.25% |
| 2026-02-07 | 7.85 | $654.55 | -1.18% | -2.69% | -5.44% | -4.28% | -6.51% | -2.67% |
| 2025-12-03 | 6.15 | $877.02 | +5.03% | +0.75% | +2.32% | -0.25% | -1.58% | -27.32% |
| 2025-10-24 | 5.17 | $1127.48 | -1.68% | +0.94% | -4.41% | -15.78% | -26.10% | -21.70% |
| 2025-10-13 | 14.63 | $1303.27 | -0.67% | -10.67% | -14.82% | -12.67% | -26.51% | -30.44% |
| 2025-10-07 | 5.01 | $1226.05 | +6.55% | +2.41% | +5.58% | -10.20% | -21.85% | -26.90% |
| 2025-10-03 | 6.19 | $1091.16 | +8.84% | +7.00% | +15.07% | +4.97% | +0.30% | -20.94% |
| 2025-09-21 | 5.98 | $1043.27 | +0.51% | -2.52% | -7.16% | +10.32% | +5.54% | -17.97% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-10-03: +15.07%
- 2025-10-07: +5.58%
- 2026-02-26: +4.65%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-05-31: -20.16%
- 2025-10-13: -14.82%
- 2025-09-21: -7.16%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.