Transparent historical data
What Happens to BNB After a 5% One-Day Drop?
BNB has recorded 12 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 1.67% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -17.0% to -13.5% | 1 |
| -13.5% to -10.0% | 2 |
| -10.0% to -6.5% | 1 |
| -6.5% to -3.0% | 0 |
| -3.0% to +0.6% | 2 |
| +0.6% to +4.1% | 2 |
| +4.1% to +7.6% | 2 |
| +7.6% to +11.1% | 1 |
| +11.1% to +14.6% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 12 | 0.65% | -1.14% | 58.3% | 6.15% | -12.81% |
| 3 days | 12 | -0.39% | 0.22% | 50.0% | 17.20% | -12.04% |
| 7 days | 12 | 1.67% | -1.09% | 50.0% | 14.63% | -17.04% |
| 14 days | 12 | 0.91% | 0.81% | 58.3% | 31.91% | -18.88% |
| 30 days | 12 | -8.51% | -4.63% | 41.7% | 17.32% | -23.61% |
| 90 days | 12 | -13.37% | -9.77% | 25.0% | 26.77% | -25.25% |
Historical occurrences
12 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | -5.28 | $571.97 | +0.40% | +5.17% | +5.51% | +1.50% | +3.01% | +26.77% |
| 2026-06-03 | -6.04 | $650.24 | -4.68% | -12.04% | -8.79% | -7.05% | -14.17% | +6.29% |
| 2026-02-23 | -5.79 | $589.47 | +1.22% | +6.72% | +4.96% | +3.81% | +8.28% | +11.24% |
| 2026-02-05 | -7.50 | $696.06 | -12.81% | -7.08% | -12.59% | -13.21% | -9.94% | -9.42% |
| 2026-02-01 | -9.03 | $779.69 | -2.78% | -3.48% | -17.04% | -18.88% | -18.25% | -21.07% |
| 2025-12-02 | -5.63 | $826.18 | +6.15% | +9.00% | +8.61% | +3.90% | +4.42% | -25.11% |
| 2025-11-04 | -8.39 | $992.66 | -5.60% | -4.34% | -0.08% | -8.73% | -7.21% | -23.64% |
| 2025-10-18 | -6.41 | $1071.99 | +1.93% | +2.71% | +3.41% | +1.45% | -13.61% | -13.20% |
| 2025-10-15 | -6.51 | $1210.22 | -3.81% | -11.42% | -12.64% | -8.84% | -23.61% | -25.25% |
| 2025-10-11 | -12.03 | $1104.50 | +2.94% | +17.20% | -2.94% | +0.36% | -9.81% | -19.22% |
| 2025-09-26 | -6.54 | $951.88 | +0.89% | +4.36% | +14.63% | +31.91% | +17.32% | -11.12% |
| 2025-09-23 | -5.30 | $992.95 | +2.42% | -4.14% | +3.85% | +23.48% | +7.97% | -13.55% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +14.63%
- 2025-12-02: +8.61%
- 2026-06-06: +5.51%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-01: -17.04%
- 2025-10-15: -12.64%
- 2026-02-05: -12.59%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.