Transparent historical data
What Happens to BNB After a 1.5x Volume Spike?
BNB has recorded 21 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.64% and 42.9% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -12.6% to -10.0% | 1 |
| -10.0% to -7.4% | 1 |
| -7.4% to -4.8% | 2 |
| -4.8% to -2.2% | 3 |
| -2.2% to +0.4% | 5 |
| +0.4% to +3.1% | 4 |
| +3.1% to +5.7% | 4 |
| +5.7% to +8.3% | 0 |
| +8.3% to +10.9% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 21 | -1.20% | -1.43% | 28.6% | 4.39% | -12.03% |
| 3 days | 21 | -0.66% | -0.79% | 47.6% | 10.89% | -12.62% |
| 7 days | 21 | -1.64% | -2.45% | 42.9% | 12.83% | -30.04% |
| 14 days | 18 | 0.92% | -3.75% | 55.6% | 9.85% | -29.23% |
| 30 days | 17 | -2.61% | -7.98% | 29.4% | 17.04% | -33.75% |
| 90 days | 16 | -9.89% | -15.60% | 6.2% | 4.25% | -31.99% |
Historical occurrences
21 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | 1.56 | $752.13 | -3.92% | -3.41% | -5.37% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-06 | 3.13 | $766.41 | -1.79% | -1.86% | -5.09% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 1.71 | $725.08 | -0.50% | +3.81% | -2.30% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 2.27 | $627.05 | +4.39% | +10.89% | +12.83% | +9.76% | — | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 1.51 | $591.70 | -0.88% | -0.66% | +0.00% | +3.11% | +17.04% | — |
| 2026-05-31 | 4.06 | $719.28 | -1.33% | -9.60% | -20.16% | -15.29% | -22.34% | -3.89% |
| 2026-05-07 | 1.90 | $647.92 | -1.67% | +0.28% | +3.62% | +0.14% | -11.72% | -8.52% |
| 2026-05-05 | 1.67 | $622.55 | +1.28% | +2.34% | +7.67% | +3.30% | -0.44% | -5.58% |
| 2026-04-08 | 1.78 | $621.12 | -3.26% | -2.46% | -1.05% | +1.70% | +2.57% | -5.73% |
| 2026-04-02 | 1.58 | $610.89 | -4.39% | -2.75% | -1.64% | +2.02% | +0.74% | -10.64% |
| 2026-03-24 | 1.63 | $639.20 | -0.14% | -1.74% | -4.77% | -6.02% | -0.21% | -8.68% |
| 2026-03-17 | 1.80 | $678.21 | -1.37% | -5.76% | -5.75% | -10.24% | -8.11% | -9.13% |
| 2026-03-14 | 1.54 | $655.21 | +0.33% | +3.51% | -1.99% | -6.50% | -9.64% | -7.66% |
| 2026-02-26 | 1.99 | $629.06 | -0.55% | -1.80% | +4.65% | +3.55% | -2.61% | +4.25% |
| 2026-01-30 | 1.53 | $867.51 | -1.20% | -12.62% | -30.04% | -29.23% | -28.79% | -28.86% |
| 2026-01-21 | 6.88 | $881.89 | +0.10% | +0.95% | +1.75% | -14.67% | -31.16% | -28.63% |
| 2026-01-18 | 4.23 | $946.26 | -2.07% | -6.80% | -6.44% | -17.60% | -33.75% | -31.99% |
| 2026-01-01 | 1.90 | $862.69 | +0.05% | +1.79% | +4.15% | +9.85% | -0.65% | -28.58% |
| 2025-12-18 | 1.54 | $842.77 | -1.55% | +1.32% | +0.38% | +2.36% | +11.21% | -20.63% |
| 2025-11-22 | 1.80 | $830.05 | +0.39% | +4.15% | +6.92% | +6.45% | +3.42% | -26.86% |
| 2025-10-10 | 2.95 | $1255.61 | -12.03% | +3.80% | -8.78% | -10.20% | -21.24% | -28.44% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +12.83%
- 2026-05-05: +7.67%
- 2025-11-22: +6.92%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -30.04%
- 2026-05-31: -20.16%
- 2025-10-10: -8.78%
How this study works
Daily volume is compared with the median of the preceding 30 complete observations.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.