Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25?
Bitcoin has recorded 14 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.55% and 57.1% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -27.8% to -24.4% | 1 |
| -24.4% to -21.1% | 2 |
| -21.1% to -17.8% | 3 |
| -17.8% to -14.5% | 1 |
| -14.5% to -11.2% | 1 |
| -11.2% to -7.8% | 2 |
| -7.8% to -4.5% | 0 |
| -4.5% to -1.2% | 0 |
| -1.2% to +2.1% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 14 | -0.09% | -0.01% | 35.7% | 4.34% | -4.67% |
| 3 days | 14 | 0.74% | -0.58% | 64.3% | 2.52% | -9.14% |
| 7 days | 14 | 0.55% | -1.22% | 57.1% | 5.49% | -25.82% |
| 14 days | 14 | -2.65% | -6.19% | 28.6% | 2.28% | -21.71% |
| 30 days | 14 | -12.03% | -7.18% | 35.7% | 21.79% | -24.25% |
| 90 days | 11 | -18.17% | -15.96% | 9.1% | 2.13% | -27.76% |
Historical occurrences
14 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 25.00 | $63465.20 | +0.94% | +1.26% | +0.71% | +1.62% | +21.79% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 25.00 | $64743.34 | -2.97% | -1.91% | -0.74% | -2.03% | +20.82% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 22.00 | $62278.96 | +4.34% | +2.43% | +4.67% | +2.28% | +1.81% | — |
| 2026-05-24 | 25.00 | $76684.37 | +0.43% | -1.09% | -3.73% | -20.64% | -16.62% | +2.13% |
| 2026-05-19 | 25.00 | $76959.41 | -0.26% | +0.77% | +0.39% | -7.33% | -16.26% | -18.34% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $84630.42 | -0.64% | -9.14% | -25.82% | -21.71% | -20.81% | -10.45% |
| 2026-01-21 | 24.00 | $88416.89 | +1.17% | +1.25% | +0.82% | -14.46% | -24.25% | -14.20% |
| 2026-01-10 | 25.00 | $90551.71 | -0.15% | +0.72% | +5.49% | -1.13% | -22.26% | -21.19% |
| 2025-12-13 | 23.00 | $90260.54 | -0.01% | -4.26% | -2.40% | -3.28% | +0.66% | -21.98% |
| 2025-12-06 | 23.00 | $89264.23 | -0.04% | +1.53% | +1.12% | -1.31% | +2.93% | -20.61% |
| 2025-11-04 | 21.00 | $106451.71 | -4.67% | -4.88% | -0.47% | -13.48% | -12.23% | -27.76% |
| 2025-10-22 | 25.00 | $108301.75 | -0.66% | +2.52% | +4.24% | -6.30% | -20.02% | -14.53% |
| 2025-10-17 | 22.00 | $108168.17 | -1.56% | +0.45% | +1.79% | +0.22% | -11.82% | -10.42% |
| 2025-10-12 | 24.00 | $110655.27 | +3.98% | +2.18% | -3.11% | +0.88% | -4.25% | -18.17% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-10: +5.49%
- 2026-07-14: +4.67%
- 2025-10-22: +4.24%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -25.82%
- 2026-05-24: -3.73%
- 2025-10-12: -3.11%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.