Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 25, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Bitcoin
14 historical signal(s) detected for Bitcoin; 11 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025-10-19 | $110655.2698 | $107210.0961 | -3.11% | 96.89 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-29 | $108301.7546 | $112893.8520 | +4.24% | 100.99 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $106451.7065 | $105951.4960 | -0.47% | 100.52 |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-12-13 | $89264.2292 | $90260.5424 | +1.12% | 101.64 |
| 2025-12-13 | 2025-12-20 | $90260.5424 | $88091.6957 | -2.40% | 99.20 |
| 2026-01-10 | 2026-01-17 | $90551.7136 | $95523.1862 | +5.49% | 104.65 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $88416.8869 | $89141.6504 | +0.82% | 105.50 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $84630.4207 | $62778.2176 | -25.82% | 78.26 |
| 2026-05-19 | 2026-05-26 | $76959.4057 | $77258.3991 | +0.39% | 78.57 |
| 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-21 | $62278.9630 | $65184.9214 | +4.67% | 82.23 |
| 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-07 | $64743.3371 | $64262.7483 | -0.74% | 81.62 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.