Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20?
Bitcoin has recorded 12 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.00% and 41.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -39.2% to -32.8% | 1 |
| -32.8% to -26.5% | 1 |
| -26.5% to -20.2% | 2 |
| -20.2% to -13.9% | 3 |
| -13.9% to -7.6% | 3 |
| -7.6% to -1.2% | 0 |
| -1.2% to +5.1% | 0 |
| +5.1% to +11.4% | 0 |
| +11.4% to +17.7% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 12 | -0.30% | -0.49% | 50.0% | 1.88% | -4.02% |
| 3 days | 12 | 0.22% | -1.20% | 50.0% | 3.88% | -9.14% |
| 7 days | 12 | -1.00% | -4.54% | 41.7% | 4.24% | -25.82% |
| 14 days | 12 | -3.01% | -6.21% | 25.0% | 10.65% | -21.71% |
| 30 days | 12 | -5.91% | -6.74% | 41.7% | 8.26% | -26.03% |
| 90 days | 11 | -18.22% | -16.41% | 9.1% | 17.72% | -39.16% |
Historical occurrences
12 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 20.00 | $63335.31 | -1.72% | +1.22% | +2.60% | +5.03% | +1.46% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 11.00 | $66727.26 | -4.02% | -8.64% | -7.58% | -1.66% | -7.85% | +17.72% |
| 2026-03-20 | 11.00 | $69936.20 | +0.84% | -2.86% | -1.73% | -4.36% | +8.26% | -7.85% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $84630.42 | -0.64% | -9.14% | -25.82% | -21.71% | -20.81% | -10.45% |
| 2026-01-26 | 20.00 | $86625.33 | +1.88% | +2.99% | -11.23% | -18.73% | -26.03% | -10.38% |
| 2026-01-22 | 20.00 | $89453.90 | +0.03% | -0.34% | -0.27% | -18.33% | -23.98% | -14.68% |
| 2026-01-01 | 20.00 | $87575.05 | +1.36% | +3.47% | +4.24% | +10.65% | -3.98% | -22.23% |
| 2025-12-26 | 20.00 | $87192.23 | +0.13% | +0.77% | +1.80% | +4.40% | +2.25% | -18.22% |
| 2025-12-15 | 16.00 | $88184.41 | -2.01% | -2.25% | +0.55% | -0.36% | +8.22% | -19.32% |
| 2025-12-07 | 20.00 | $89227.45 | +1.31% | +3.88% | +1.15% | -0.99% | +5.21% | -23.63% |
| 2025-11-13 | 15.00 | $101633.69 | -2.12% | -6.15% | -10.06% | -10.94% | -11.19% | -32.26% |
| 2025-11-08 | 20.00 | $103191.76 | -0.88% | +2.67% | -8.16% | -17.54% | -12.40% | -39.16% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-01: +4.24%
- 2026-07-08: +2.60%
- 2025-12-26: +1.80%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -25.82%
- 2026-01-26: -11.23%
- 2025-11-13: -10.06%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.