Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 20, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Bitcoin
12 historical signal(s) detected for Bitcoin; 9 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-11-15 | $103191.7561 | $94772.6144 | -8.16% | 91.84 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-12-14 | $89227.4527 | $90253.1181 | +1.15% | 92.90 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-22 | $88184.4109 | $88672.3297 | +0.55% | 93.41 |
| 2025-12-26 | 2026-01-02 | $87192.2347 | $88764.1262 | +1.80% | 95.09 |
| 2026-01-22 | 2026-01-29 | $89453.9047 | $89212.2082 | -0.27% | 94.84 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $84630.4207 | $62778.2176 | -25.82% | 70.35 |
| 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-27 | $69936.1993 | $68727.2123 | -1.73% | 69.13 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $66727.2642 | $61669.7638 | -7.58% | 63.89 |
| 2026-07-08 | 2026-07-15 | $63335.3093 | $64983.5191 | +2.60% | 65.56 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.