Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin After Negative Funding?
This study currently has no completed 7-day observations in the locally stored Bitcoin dataset.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -29.0% to -23.7% | 4 |
| -23.7% to -18.4% | 3 |
| -18.4% to -13.1% | 3 |
| -13.1% to -7.8% | 3 |
| -7.8% to -2.5% | 5 |
| -2.5% to +2.7% | 8 |
| +2.7% to +8.0% | 7 |
| +8.0% to +13.3% | 4 |
| +13.3% to +18.6% | 4 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
42 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | -0.00 | $79671.26 | +0.19% | -0.73% | -3.10% | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-23 | -0.00 | $66077.06 | -1.55% | -2.66% | -3.27% | -2.22% | +18.52% | — |
| 2026-06-25 | -0.00 | $60989.57 | -2.07% | -1.70% | -1.68% | +2.06% | +5.09% | — |
| 2026-06-23 | -0.00 | $63937.29 | -1.99% | -6.59% | -5.92% | +0.10% | +3.35% | — |
| 2026-06-14 | -0.00 | $64408.81 | +2.02% | +1.88% | -0.24% | -6.92% | -3.31% | +19.86% |
| 2026-06-09 | -0.00 | $63069.15 | -2.22% | +0.77% | +5.11% | +1.38% | -1.30% | +27.37% |
| 2026-06-04 | -0.00 | $64046.61 | -0.37% | -4.98% | -4.01% | +0.62% | -2.33% | +20.88% |
| 2026-05-22 | -0.00 | $77550.38 | -2.67% | -0.69% | -5.03% | -17.72% | -17.15% | -10.65% |
| 2026-05-18 | -0.00 | $77428.52 | -0.61% | +0.05% | -0.53% | -4.95% | -15.25% | -18.59% |
| 2026-05-15 | -0.00 | $81059.12 | -2.46% | -4.48% | -4.33% | -9.14% | -20.54% | -21.77% |
| 2026-05-12 | -0.00 | $81627.57 | -1.40% | -0.70% | -5.72% | -5.35% | -24.68% | -20.55% |
| 2026-04-27 | -0.01 | $78637.74 | -1.62% | -3.63% | -0.16% | +4.30% | -3.54% | -18.21% |
| 2026-04-09 | -0.00 | $70644.79 | +1.02% | +3.36% | +5.92% | +10.75% | +13.52% | -10.35% |
| 2026-04-07 | -0.00 | $68672.25 | +4.35% | +3.93% | +8.46% | +10.46% | +18.59% | -7.41% |
| 2026-03-31 | -0.00 | $66691.27 | +2.12% | +0.29% | +2.97% | +11.68% | +13.64% | -10.79% |
| 2026-03-26 | -0.00 | $71303.59 | -3.61% | -6.89% | -4.69% | -0.92% | +8.62% | -12.12% |
| 2026-03-17 | -0.00 | $74679.37 | -0.90% | -6.35% | -4.94% | -10.70% | +0.20% | -12.01% |
| 2026-03-06 | -0.00 | $70868.22 | -3.85% | -6.81% | -0.64% | -1.32% | -5.35% | -9.63% |
| 2026-02-23 | -0.01 | $65192.19 | -0.70% | +4.08% | +0.97% | +1.30% | +8.19% | +17.63% |
| 2026-02-18 | -0.00 | $67559.30 | -1.68% | +0.66% | -5.16% | +1.08% | +3.52% | +13.91% |
| 2026-02-05 | -0.00 | $73059.18 | -14.07% | -5.22% | -8.17% | -9.08% | -6.73% | +10.75% |
| 2026-02-01 | -0.00 | $78647.03 | -2.23% | -3.84% | -11.95% | -11.25% | -12.50% | -0.56% |
| 2026-01-17 | -0.00 | $95523.19 | -0.75% | -3.10% | -6.28% | -11.97% | -28.00% | -21.37% |
| 2026-01-15 | -0.00 | $96898.76 | -1.35% | -2.16% | -7.68% | -7.93% | -28.96% | -23.32% |
| 2026-01-09 | -0.00 | $91027.67 | -0.52% | -0.19% | +5.02% | -1.70% | -23.93% | -22.39% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-27: +11.52%
- 2026-04-07: +8.46%
- 2025-11-23: +7.27%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-11-11: -13.07%
- 2026-02-01: -11.95%
- 2025-10-29: -10.11%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is below 0%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.