Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After Negative Funding
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after negative funding, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Bitcoin
42 historical signal(s) detected for Bitcoin; 26 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (16 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | 2025-09-20 | $116091.8070 | $115656.9458 | -0.37% | 99.63 |
| 2025-09-25 | 2025-10-02 | $113317.1627 | $118930.9551 | +4.95% | 104.56 |
| 2025-10-12 | 2025-10-19 | $110655.2698 | $107210.0961 | -3.11% | 101.31 |
| 2025-10-29 | 2025-11-05 | $112893.8520 | $101480.7666 | -10.11% | 91.06 |
| 2025-11-09 | 2025-11-16 | $102286.8252 | $95380.1332 | -6.75% | 84.92 |
| 2025-11-23 | 2025-11-30 | $84675.5076 | $90832.1869 | +7.27% | 91.09 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $86303.8977 | $90626.0373 | +5.01% | 95.65 |
| 2025-12-11 | 2025-12-18 | $91986.5811 | $86196.8214 | -6.29% | 89.63 |
| 2025-12-18 | 2025-12-25 | $86196.8214 | $87589.0166 | +1.62% | 91.08 |
| 2025-12-28 | 2026-01-04 | $87852.9866 | $90614.4068 | +3.14% | 93.94 |
| 2026-01-06 | 2026-01-13 | $93879.9480 | $91200.6276 | -2.85% | 91.26 |
| 2026-01-15 | 2026-01-22 | $96898.7607 | $89453.9047 | -7.68% | 84.25 |
| 2026-02-01 | 2026-02-08 | $78647.0274 | $69245.7820 | -11.95% | 74.18 |
| 2026-02-18 | 2026-02-25 | $67559.2957 | $64073.5489 | -5.16% | 70.35 |
| 2026-03-06 | 2026-03-13 | $70868.2182 | $70417.1939 | -0.64% | 69.90 |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-03-24 | $74679.3709 | $70987.2519 | -4.94% | 66.45 |
| 2026-03-26 | 2026-04-02 | $71303.5855 | $67959.8752 | -4.69% | 63.33 |
| 2026-04-07 | 2026-04-14 | $68672.2466 | $74481.6414 | +8.46% | 68.69 |
| 2026-04-27 | 2026-05-04 | $78637.7436 | $78512.0925 | -0.16% | 68.58 |
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-05-19 | $81627.5660 | $76959.4057 | -5.72% | 64.66 |
| 2026-05-22 | 2026-05-29 | $77550.3831 | $73651.6426 | -5.03% | 61.41 |
| 2026-06-04 | 2026-06-11 | $64046.6106 | $61480.1444 | -4.01% | 58.95 |
| 2026-06-14 | 2026-06-21 | $64408.8098 | $64253.3987 | -0.24% | 58.80 |
| 2026-06-23 | 2026-06-30 | $63937.2853 | $60152.3587 | -5.92% | 55.32 |
| 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-30 | $66077.0565 | $63916.5979 | -3.27% | 53.51 |
| 2026-09-05 | 2026-09-12 | $79671.2577 | $77203.5344 | -3.10% | 51.86 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.