Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin After a 5% One-Day Drop?
Bitcoin has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -6.69% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -4.0% to -2.2% | 1 |
| -2.2% to -0.5% | 4 |
| -0.5% to +1.3% | 0 |
| +1.3% to +3.1% | 0 |
| +3.1% to +4.8% | 0 |
| +4.8% to +6.6% | 0 |
| +6.6% to +8.4% | 0 |
| +8.4% to +10.2% | 0 |
| +10.2% to +11.9% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | -1.94% | 0.20% | 16.7% | 11.94% | -4.02% |
| 3 days | 6 | -1.85% | -1.24% | 50.0% | 12.14% | -9.14% |
| 7 days | 6 | -6.69% | -6.70% | 33.3% | 5.54% | -25.82% |
| 14 days | 6 | -1.72% | -3.89% | 33.3% | 6.69% | -21.71% |
| 30 days | 6 | -7.65% | -6.56% | 33.3% | 7.27% | -20.81% |
| 90 days | 6 | -5.51% | -1.06% | 33.3% | 29.72% | -23.31% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -6.44 | $66727.26 | -4.02% | -8.64% | -7.58% | -1.66% | -7.85% | +17.72% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.07 | $62778.22 | +11.94% | +12.14% | +5.54% | +6.69% | +7.27% | +29.72% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $78647.03 | -2.23% | -3.84% | -11.95% | -11.25% | -12.50% | -0.56% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $84630.42 | -0.64% | -9.14% | -25.82% | -21.71% | -20.81% | -10.45% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $86618.47 | -1.77% | +0.14% | +5.43% | +6.35% | +2.00% | -23.31% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $113043.68 | -2.11% | +1.93% | -5.80% | -1.78% | -7.46% | -19.48% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +5.54%
- 2025-11-21: +5.43%
- 2025-10-11: -5.80%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -25.82%
- 2026-02-01: -11.95%
- 2026-06-03: -7.58%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.